Will the LP secondaries market be disintermediated by end of 2030?
1
8
Ṁ20Ṁ70
2031
37%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Resolves positively if, by 2030-12-31, 75% or more LP fund secondary transfers involving $5M+ of transaction value are completed without an intermediary or broker. Online exchanges do not count as an intermediary for purposes of this market, except if they employ human brokers that typically spend 2 hours or more on each transaction.
I currently work as an intermediary in this market so I expect to know the result without ambiguity. Right now, I would estimate that 80%+ of $5M+ transfers are intermediated.
Note this does not include secondary directs.
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