Will the BLM movement be more popular at close (2027) than as of market creation (2022)?
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234
1k
2028
16%
chance

Resolves according to my subjective judgement. I will welcome stakeholder input when resolving the question but reserve the right to resolve contrary to the opinion of market participants if necessary. I reserve the right to bet on this market but tentatively expect to stop betting in the last two years (2026-2027).

"Popular" being a loosely defined combination of public attention / resources, total adherents, and references in social discourse.

Resolves as N/A if there doesn't seem to be a clear answer at close.

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predicts NO

I know it's only been a few months, but interest has remained surprisingly stable with only a mild downward trend.

https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?date=2022-10-21%202023-06-09&q=Black%20Lives%20Matter&hl=en

predicts YES

no one liked mlk when he was alive

predicts NO

I'm assuming this adjusts for population growth.

@cos If there is a large population swing between the dates, then I would adjust accordingly in my subjective judgment

Psy-ops about the ~12 unarmed black men killed by police (among hundreds that are armed and do kill police in such encounters)

leading to thousands more murders and traffic fatalities

Hopefully has faded away.

@Gigacasting i thought being armed was a constitutional right, not something punishable by death?

Will the BLM movement be more popular at close (2027) than as of market creation (2022)?, 8k, beautiful, illustration, trending on art station, picture of the day, epic composition