Will the animal rights movement be more popular at close (2027) than as of market creation (2022)?
70
1.4kṀ3478
2028
77%
chance

Resolves according to my subjective judgement. I will welcome stakeholder input when resolving the question but reserve the right to resolve contrary to the opinion of market participants if necessary. I reserve the right to bet on this market but tentatively expect to stop betting in the last two years (2026-2027).

"Popular" being a loosely defined combination of public attention / resources, total adherents, and references in social discourse.

Resolves as N/A if there doesn't seem to be a clear answer at close.

Oct 21, 12:55pm: Will the animal rights movement be perceived to be more popular at close (2027) than as of market creation (2022)? → Will the animal rights movement be more popular at close (2027) than as of market creation (2022)?

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Why is this so high?

@Conflux the expanding moral circle?

predictedNO

@JacyAnthis Still, naively you’d imagine this as close to 50%

I actually believe the market though, but more because fake meat is getting better lol, which means more people get to remove their cognitive dissonance and go veg

predictedYES

@Conflux But probably the animal rights movement asks for more as they make progress, unclear if they end up getting credit for past success.

I'm guessing animal welfare is a close enough synonym to animal rights here?

predictedNO

@KCS Yeah I think so

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