Will the animal rights movement be more popular at close (2027) than as of market creation (2022)? | Manifold Markets

closes Jan 1, 2028

Carson's Important Markets

Effective Altruism

Will the animal rights movement be more popular at close (2027) than as of market creation (2022)?

75%

chance

1D

1W

1M

ALL

Resolves according to my subjective judgement. I will welcome stakeholder input when resolving the question but reserve the right to resolve contrary to the opinion of market participants if necessary. I reserve the right to bet on this market but tentatively expect to stop betting in the last two years (2026-2027).

"Popular" being a loosely defined combination of public attention / resources, total adherents, and references in social discourse.

Resolves as N/A if there doesn't seem to be a clear answer at close.

Oct 21, 12:55pm: ~~Will the animal rights movement be perceived to be more popular at close (2027) than as of market creation (2022)?~~ → Will the animal rights movement be more popular at close (2027) than as of market creation (2022)?

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Confluxbought Ṁ35 of NO

Why is this so high?

kenakoferbought Ṁ10 of YES

I'm guessing animal welfare is a close enough synonym to animal rights here?

Carson Galeis predicting NO at 88%

@KCS Yeah I think so

Manifold in the WildBot

Will the animal rights movement be perceived to be more popular at close (2027) than as of market creation (2022)?, 8k, beautiful, illustration, trending on art station, picture of the day, epic composition

Eljay bought Ṁ10 YES at 75%

Gordon Fierce bought Ṁ10 YES at 75%

Katja Grace bought Ṁ10 NO from 76% to 75%

Katja Grace bought Ṁ10 NO from 77% to 76%

Katja Grace bought Ṁ10 NO from 79% to 77%

Katja Grace bought Ṁ10 NO from 80% to 79%

Katja Grace bought Ṁ10 NO from 81% to 80%

howtodowtle bought Ṁ1 YES at 81%

Tripping bought Ṁ1 YES at 81%

kenakofer bought Ṁ10 YES at 81%

Conflux bought Ṁ35 NO from 86% to 81%

Carlos Leon bought Ṁ10 YES from 85% to 86%

omnishambles bought Ṁ10 YES at 85%

Cytokine bought Ṁ10 YES at 85%

Carson Gale sold Ṁ1 NO at 85%

CubityFirst bought Ṁ10 YES at 85%

Max Bittker bought Ṁ10 YES from 84% to 85%

Tоm bought Ṁ10 NO from 86% to 84%

CrashHermit bought Ṁ10 YES at 86%

Adam bought Ṁ25 NO from 89% to 86%

Ian Philips bought Ṁ10 YES at 89%

turb bought Ṁ10 YES at 89%

AllAboutHustle bought Ṁ10 YES from 88% to 89%

Letian Wang sold Ṁ31 YES from 89% to 88%

Nico D sold Ṁ136 YES from 91% to 89%

AccelerationBot filled limit order Ṁ60/Ṁ100 YES at 91% (cancelled)

Nico D bought Ṁ100 YES from 89% to 90%

kenakofer bought Ṁ10 YES from 88% to 89%

Charlie bought Ṁ10 YES at 88%

S G bought Ṁ10 YES at 88%

AccelerationBot filled limit order Ṁ28/Ṁ100 YES at 88% (cancelled)

GeorgeVii bought Ṁ50 YES from 86% to 87%

Letian Wang bought Ṁ10 YES at 86%

Letian Wang bought Ṁ10 YES from 85% to 86%

Letian Wang bought Ṁ10 YES at 85%

AccelerationBot filled limit order Ṁ79/Ṁ100 YES at 85% (cancelled)

mvdm bought Ṁ30 NO from 88% to 82%

Daniel Goodman bought Ṁ10 YES from 87% to 88%

Rashmi Jha bought Ṁ10 YES at 87%

Vincent Luczkow bought Ṁ10 YES at 87%

AccelerationBot filled limit order Ṁ39/Ṁ39 YES at 87%

Adam sold Ṁ257 YES from 92% to 85%

VelocityBot sold Ṁ2 NO from 91% to 92%

Siao bought Ṁ15 YES at 91%

stevez bought Ṁ50 YES from 90% to 91%

stevez bought Ṁ30 YES from 89% to 90%

Nico D bought Ṁ35 YES from 88% to 89%

Siao bought Ṁ10 YES at 88%

Carson Gale bought Ṁ5 NO from 90% to 88%

VelocityBot filled limit order Ṁ2/Ṁ7 NO at 90% (cancelled)

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