Will the animal rights movement be more popular at close (2027) than as of market creation (2022)?

Nico’s animal welfare dashboard•Effective Altruism•Carson's Important Markets

178

Ṁ3.5K

Ṁ1.4K

2028

76%

chance

ALL

Resolves according to my subjective judgement. I will welcome stakeholder input when resolving the question but reserve the right to resolve contrary to the opinion of market participants if necessary. I reserve the right to bet on this market but tentatively expect to stop betting in the last two years (2026-2027).

"Popular" being a loosely defined combination of public attention / resources, total adherents, and references in social discourse.

Resolves as N/A if there doesn't seem to be a clear answer at close.

Oct 21, 12:55pm: ~~Will the animal rights movement be perceived to be more popular at close (2027) than as of market creation (2022)?~~ → Will the animal rights movement be more popular at close (2027) than as of market creation (2022)?

Get Ṁ200 play money

Related questions

Will the effective altruism movement be more popular at close (2027) than as of market creation (2022)?

62% chance

Will prediction markets become mainstream by 2028?

46% chance

Will sales of plant-based meat increase in the UK in 2024 compared to 2023?

68% chance

Will the BLM movement be more popular at close (2027) than as of market creation (2022)?

16% chance

44% chance

Will wild-animal suffering be a mainstream moral issue by the beginning of 2100?

53% chance

69% chance

By how much will dollar sales of plant-based meats increase over 2024?

2.6

Will a hybrid cultivated and plant-based meat product be commercially available in the US by 2025?

78% chance

Will there be a year, before 2040, in which *net* AI suffering outweighs net 2022 farmed animal suffering?

Sort by:

bought Ṁ35 of NO

Why is this so high?

@Conflux the expanding moral circle?

predicts NO

@JacyAnthis Still, naively you’d imagine this as close to 50%

I actually believe the market though, but more because fake meat is getting better lol, which means more people get to remove their cognitive dissonance and go veg

predicts YES

@Conflux But probably the animal rights movement asks for more as they make progress, unclear if they end up getting credit for past success.

bought Ṁ10 of YES

I'm guessing animal welfare is a close enough synonym to animal rights here?

predicts NO

@KCS Yeah I think so

Will the animal rights movement be perceived to be more popular at close (2027) than as of market creation (2022)?, 8k, beautiful, illustration, trending on art station, picture of the day, epic composition