Will I be able to order a self-driving taxi without a steering wheel by end of 2024?
2.1k
2025
10%
chance

Must be ordered from my phone. I may bet on this market.

2023-08-13 Edit: I live in SF. I do not plan to move in this time period. I am approved for Waymo and Cruise vehicles.

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Related for approximating when vehicles without a steering wheel.

@CarsonGale will this question close Jan 1, 24 or 25?

predicts YES

@LeonardoKr Thanks for flagging - the question title clearly states "end of 2024" (which is pretty unambiguous), but the 'close date' was accidentally set for 12/31/2023. I've since adjusted the close date to appropriately reflect the time period.

Hopefully no issue for traders since "close dates" are often set meaningfully before the "resolve dates", but LMK if anyone made bad trades as a result of the mistake and I can consider rectifying with a mana payout.

predicts NO

Non-driving display AV prototype from Zeekr, for Waymo (end of article)

According to ZEEKR, the prototype EVs are being built in China as we speak and will be sent to Waymo shortly. However, the final location of the production EVs is yet to be determined. When that does happen, the robotaxi network plans to deploy the purpose-built EVs in four US cities to begin, including San Francisco, Phoenix, and Austin, but there is no clear timeframe on when that will happen.

The version seen above does not include a steering wheel, but the first EVs you may see on city streets will likely have them for regulatory reasons. ZEEKR said that if regulations require the steering wheel, it can add it as necessary.

https://electrek.co/2023/11/02/zeekr-001-009-first-drives-evs-automaker-waymo-mpv/

predicts NO

Cruise has had their DMV AV license revoked after misleading the CA DMV, hiding the second half of the video of their car dragging the pedestrian 20 ft as it executed a "pullover maneuver"

https://www.vice.com/en/article/4a3ba3/california-dmv-suspends-cruises-self-driving-car-license-after-pedestrian-injury

The best chance for a Level 5 robotaxi was the Cruise Origin, which is awaiting NHTSA approval. They have a test version in SF: https://twitter.com/sojan_official/status/1716204193407717484
But the license suspension is a major setback for Cruise, not just for it's robotaxi service, but also in terms of regulator goodwill.

Waymo is partnered with Chinese car manufacturer Geely for its Level 5 AVs, but nothing in production and certainly won't be ready in 2024. Zoox is similar, but probably even further behind.

How will this resolve if Cruise claims to have Origins available for service, but there is very limited availability? Will this resolve YES if any regular person in SF takes a ride in an Origin, or do you specifically have to physically take a ride in one? Does this resolve YES if there is a Cruise employee operator with a game controller on board?

predicts YES

@MingweiSamuel I specifically have to be able to ride. As of now, I have no particular "in" with any Cruise employees other than a habit of requesting early access with regularity.

predicts NO

I would bet more, but I am scared that @wustep has a great calibration curve and thinks that there is a 60%. I guess it could be available for certain zones. Things are stuck with the NHTSA. @wustep - Do you know some insider info?

sold Ṁ61 of YES

Cruise Origin or Zoox seem like the most likely route for a YES resolution.

predicts YES

Why not Waymo? Do they have steering wheels?

predicts YES

@jack they do have steering wheels, and I'm not aware of a concept vehicle w/o from Waymo.

predicts YES

@jack thanks for sharing - I wasn't aware of that! Very exciting...

bought Ṁ201 YES

The Cruise Origin (which will presumably operate first in SF, where other Cruise cars are operating), looks like it would satisfy this criteria.

Anywhere on Earth?

predicts YES

@tmk I live in SF, so likely will need to be in or near the Bay Area. If I'm traveling somewhere, that could resolve based on capabilities elsewhere.

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