Will I be able to hail a driverless autonomous vehicle from the Presidio of SF to Palo Alto and back by end of 2023?
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resolved Jan 1
Resolved
NO

I am currently approved for Waymo and can travel driverless within ~most of SF anytime.

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predicted NO

Waymo's got the whole city of San Francisco covered, including the Presidio, but I don't think that'll extend to Palo Alto quite this soon. (I'll be excited to be wrong of course!)

predicted NO

@dreev I agree - I think they will focus on expanding coverage within SF first and nailing that down before going to Palo Alto. There is also not really a precedent of Waymo's going on highways, so it's not clear that will be feasible in the near-term.

predicted NO

Couple clarifying question before I bet toooo heavily:

  1. Does it only count if there's no human in the driver's seat? What about a backup human who doesn't appear to be touching the steering wheel?

  2. What if you're called out of town or something and believe you would've been able to hail such a ride but aren't able to for personal reasons? More generally, any ways for this to resolve YES without you personally completing the round trip?

predicted NO

@dreev
1. I also count backup human. But FYI I've never been in an AV with a backup human. Doesn't count if the backup human has to take control at any point.
2. Yes, I would resolve positively if I'm logistically unable to complete the trip but could in theory. I'll try to actually complete the trip if I can, but if it is too expensive or if I don't have a reason to go to Palo Alto then I might resolve positively without physically calling the AV.

Hope this helps!

predicted NO

@CarsonGale Thanks! I'm not sure about #1. If there's a backup human monitoring carefully and ready to take over at a moment's notice then that's a fairly far cry from an autonomous vehicle. Unless in practice the human never does take over. But you won't know that from one sample ride.

So the presence of a backup human means it's not very strong evidence that the car is autonomous, even if the human doesn't happen to intervene on a particular trip.

predicted NO

@dreev I agree that it's theoretically possible that I am able to ride in a self-driving car that just happens to work in my ride but isn't truly autonomous in practice. But (i) seems super unlikely that I specifically will be included in such a situation, given I have never before been used as a subject for driverless test trials, and (ii) such a situation still seems like it would satisfy the wording of the original market - i.e., it seems odd to be driven autonomously w/o driver interference on the designated route and NOT resolve yes.

Thoughts?

predicted NO

@CarsonGale Yeah, I'd say it's not likely enough to worry about much and it's ok to just give a verdict on the hypothetical just in case. Sounds like that verdict is: backup human allowed as long they don't take control on your sample trip. (And that you believe they take control so infrequently that a backup human wouldn't be strictly necessary? Or at least have no reason to believe otherwise?)

predicted NO

@dreev Yes that seems right. If I have reason to think that a successful ride is an anomaly I reserve rights to resolve as I deem fit, but seems extremely likely that if I am successful in my ride I will resolve positively.

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