Resolves YES if it is reputably reported/announced that Waymo has begun serving pickups OR dropoffs from any SFO airport TERMINAL (edit: or the parking garage rideshare area). Resolves NO at close otherwise. Note that service to/from the SFO airtrain stations for long-term parking, rental cars, or West Field Rd do NOT count as they are not within the SFO terminal area.
(previous https://manifold.markets/MingweiSamuel/will-waymo-give-rides-tofrom-sfo-ai - note I forgot to specify driverless in this 2024 version)
Update 2024-12-27 - Pickups/dropoffs in the Uber/Lyft area on the top level of the parking garage are considered within the SFO area and will count towards the resolution. (reviewed summary of creator comment)
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Market for end of 2026: https://manifold.markets/MingweiSamuel/will-waymo-give-public-driverless-r-C8uc9sEpzy
News broke out today of this happening in phases. https://techcrunch.com/2025/09/16/waymo-approved-to-start-testing-autonomous-vehicles-at-san-francisco-international-airport/
phase 1: autonomous mode with a “trained specialist” behind the wheel. I don't think this will count as "driverless". This will start in the coming weeks.
Phase 2: testing passenger service with employees and airport staff.
Phase 3: all public
The third phase is what I think would resolve this market yes. I'm not confident they'll get to that by the end of the year.
@Samaritan even the third phase resolves NO, because it is to the Kiss & Fly area, not to the terminal area
@lithp Because it was clarified that the Uber/Lyft pickup area would count, I assumed the kiss-and-fly area would also count, as it serves the same purpose. But good point, maybe the market maker won't consider it
@lithp Good catch, yes Kiss & Fly area is at the rental car airtrain station and not within the terminal area so would still resolve NO
Waymo has received a permit for its vehicles to map the airport, but they are barred from commercial deliveries, according to the article.