Will I be able to book an Autonomous Ride from Berkeley to SFO for less than $30, in 2027?
11
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2027
26%
chance

If autonomous vehicles make headway, they could make driving less expensive.


Right now, it typically costs me around $50 for a private ride from downtown Berkeley to SFO, or ~$40 for a shared ride. In the future, inflation will make the dollar less valuable, but also, autonomous cars might make driving cheaper. On this other side, if they become too popular, there could be bottlenecks of road capacity or similar.

This resolves TRUE if:

  1. In January 2027, I can take an autonomous drive from the downtown Berkeley area to SFO, using an application I can easily install. My place is close to the downtown BART station - but if leaving from that station is cheaper, I'll use that one.

  1. If I can find some ride in the first ~2 weeks of January that's less than $30. I'll check at least 5 times. Happy to check when users here suggest. I won't check it between 12pm and 8am, both because I might be asleep, and because this range is less relevant.

  2. The $30 is in 2027 dollars, not in 2023 dollars. So, inflation will influence the result.

  3. I'll allow there to be up to 2 other people sharing the ride with me, but no one more. So if there's an "autonomous bus", that wouldn't count.

I won't include tip in this.

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I mean to mostly leave this market, if others are participating. Don't want to biase the results.

@OzzieGooen Chuck in a limit order at the current price and I'll buy your NO

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