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MANIFOLD
Will a human preserved through cryonics be successfully brought back to life by end of 2075?
47
Ṁ1kṀ3.1k
2076
35%
chance

The restored subject must have previously been declared legally dead. For a positive resolution, the restored subject must be awake, be able to communicate, and live for at least one month. They also must have been declared dead for at least one month. The resolution criteria of this market will not be dependent on whether the restored subject retains their personal identity/memories.

Update: 2023-02-13: A digital mind upload is not sufficient to merit a positive resolution.


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Milestones to watch for a 2075 deadline, with where each stands today. Reversible storage of an organ: done for a rat kidney in 2023 (vitrified up to 100 days, rewarmed with magnetic nanoparticles, transplanted, full function; Han et al., Nature Communications). Reversible storage of a brain with function intact: not done in any species. Whole-body reversible deep cooling: hours, not storage, and in dogs rather than people (Leaf and Darwin's bloodless perfusion experiments at a few degrees above zero, Cryovita/Alcor, 1980s). Repair of people preserved under 1990s to 2020s protocols: no demonstrated method. Forty-nine years is long enough for several of those rungs, but each one has historically taken decades, and the species where whole-body work was pushed furthest is the dog, which is also where the first lifespan trials of anti-aging drugs are running now (mine): https://w0lph.github.io/k9/trials/

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