Will a human preserved through cryonics be successfully brought back to life by end of 2100?

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2101

49%

chance

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The restored subject must have previously been declared legally dead. For a positive resolution, the restored subject must be awake, be able to communicate, and live for at least one month. They also must have been declared dead for at least one month. The resolution criteria of this market will not be dependent on whether the restored subject retains their personal identity/memories.

Update: 2023-02-13: A digital mind upload is not sufficient to merit a positive resolution.

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If a human preserved through cryonics is successfully brought back to life before 2100, how will it happen first?

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Will the first person have been successfully revived from cryonics by... ?

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Must not this be a subset (upload doesn't count) of the "restored" be version of this question and thus lower probability?

May be. If it happens, it would be great.

What do you think on the below question?

"Update: 2023-02-13: A digital mind upload is not sufficient to merit a positive resolution."
Huge update. I'm selling my yes shares because this is assuming a lot more about future society, etc, and I'm not sure about it.

>2:1 odds that there's some fundamental issue that makes this way harder than people expect seems like a good deal to me

@Adam The question doesn't specify how long someone has to have been cryonically preserved. Being cryopreserved with 2070s technology (or the latest technology before cryopreserved people aren't legally considered dead, if that's sooner) and revived with 2090s technology seems quite plausible.

@dph121 it's an interesting question what technology might exist, it might not even be cryogenic, but legally dead heart stopped etc for a month and brought back, wonder what's possible