Will a human preserved through cryonics be successfully brought back to life by end of 2100? | Manifold Markets

closes Jan 1, 2101

Carson's Important Markets

Will a human preserved through cryonics be successfully brought back to life by end of 2100?

48%

chance

1D

1W

1M

ALL

The restored subject must have previously been declared legally dead. For a positive resolution, the restored subject must be awake, be able to communicate, and live for at least one month. They also must have been declared dead for at least one month. The resolution criteria of this market will not be dependent on whether the restored subject retains their personal identity/memories.

Update: 2023-02-13: A digital mind upload is not sufficient to merit a positive resolution.

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Andy McKenziesold Ṁ10 of YES

"Update: 2023-02-13: A digital mind upload is not sufficient to merit a positive resolution."
Huge update. I'm selling my yes shares because this is assuming a lot more about future society, etc, and I'm not sure about it.

Adambought Ṁ125 of NO

>2:1 odds that there's some fundamental issue that makes this way harder than people expect seems like a good deal to me

Dawgbedd bought Ṁ10 NO at 48%

Andrew Hebb sold Ṁ8 YES at 48%

Alex Petrenko bought Ṁ10 YES at 48%

tigrennatenn bought Ṁ10 NO at 48%

cos created limit order for Ṁ1 YES at 31%

cos created limit order for Ṁ1 NO at 56%

cos created limit order for Ṁ1 NO at 63%

cos created limit order for Ṁ1 YES at 38%

Alexander Sumer bought Ṁ10 NO from 49% to 48%

howtodowtle bought Ṁ1 YES at 49%

Tripping bought Ṁ1 YES at 49%

AllAboutHustle bought Ṁ10 NO at 49%

Reynolds bought Ṁ10 NO from 50% to 49%

Carson Gale sold Ṁ10 NO from 49% to 50%

Multicore bought Ṁ10 NO from 50% to 49%

Hunter Johnson bought Ṁ30 NO from 52% to 50%

Nicole Molly created limit order for Ṁ60 YES at 40%

Odoacre bought Ṁ10 NO at 52%

lukalot bought Ṁ10 NO from 53% to 52%

Carson Gale sold Ṁ0 NO at 53%

Marian Andrecki bought Ṁ20 NO from 54% to 53%

Andy McKenzie sold Ṁ10 YES from 55% to 54%

Andrew Hebb bought Ṁ10 YES at 55%

MHKFA sold Ṁ109 NO from 48% to 55%

habakuk sold Ṁ20 NO from 47% to 48%

habakuk bought Ṁ10 NO at 47%

habakuk bought Ṁ10 NO from 48% to 47%

AccelerationBot filled limit order Ṁ16/Ṁ100 YES at 48% (cancelled)

MHKFA bought Ṁ112 NO from 55% to 47%

Andy McKenzie bought Ṁ10 YES from 54% to 55%

Charlie bought Ṁ10 NO from 55% to 54%

Carson Gale filled limit order Ṁ44/Ṁ100 NO at 55%

miscatulated bought Ṁ10 YES at 57%

S G bought Ṁ10 NO at 57%

David Mathers bought Ṁ22 NO from 59% to 57%

Franklin Baldo bought Ṁ10 NO from 60% to 59%

Adam bought Ṁ25 NO from 63% to 60%

Adam sold Ṁ129 NO from 51% to 63%

AccelerationBot filled limit order Ṁ41/Ṁ100 YES at 51% (cancelled)

mvdm bought Ṁ350 NO from 64% to 47%

Steven sold Ṁ110 NO from 53% to 64%

Steven bought Ṁ100 NO from 63% to 53%

Steven bought Ṁ10 NO from 64% to 63%

Nathan bought Ṁ10 YES from 63% to 64%

Joshua Gale bought Ṁ10 NO from 64% to 63%

Adam sold Ṁ37 NO from 60% to 64%

charlie bought Ṁ10 NO from 61% to 60%

Zardoru bought Ṁ10 NO from 62% to 61%

Lauro Langosco sold Ṁ16 NO from 60% to 62%

Olivia bought Ṁ45 NO from 65% to 60%

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