Will reviving a cryonics patient be developed before life extension to 200 years?
4
53
110
2200
49%
chance

The question will resolve positively if successful resuscitation of a cryopreserved person becomes possible before life extension to at least 200 years.

For YES resolution, revival of a cryopreserved body has to either be demonstrated for a human, or for a large animal with scientific consensus that the same technique can be used for a human. The revived person or animal has to stay frozen at the temperature below -100 C for at least an hour.

For NO resolution, life extension has to be developed that can extend human life to at least 200 years. This can be shown by either actually having a human live until the age of 200, or by developing a rejuvenation technique such that there is a scientific consensus that it could be repeated enough time to extend life to 200 years. For the purposes of this outcome, life extension by cryopreserving a person and then reviving them doesn't count.

Since both outcomes depend on scientific consensus which is somewhat vague, if both goals are achieved at roughly the same time, the market will resolve as N/A. If neither condition is fulfilled by 2200, the market will likewise resolve as N/A.

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