On January 4th, 2023 Term Sheet, a well-known financial newsletter by Fortune (typically regarding PE/VC) posted a series of predictions regarding the calendar year 2023.
One of these predictions was the following:
“In 2023, we expect to see innovation in technologies addressing issues like social isolation for the age 50+ market given the fact that nearly 26 million Americans 50 or older now live alone, up from 15 million just twenty years ago. We need more human-to-human interactions facilitated by technology, from making friends to reskilling for employment to receiving healthcare in the home. Covid has accelerated the digital penetration and comfort of this audience, despite popular belief.” —Abby Miller Levy, managing partner and co-founder, Primetime Partners
I will not attempt to initially define all resolution criteria in this market and will instead attempt to handle any nuances/complications/data feasibility as it arises. If by end of 2023 I think it is not possible to confidently resolve this market in the spirit in which it was intended, I reserve the right to resolve as "n/a".
Any clarifications to the resolution criteria will be listed below, along with the applicable date:
[TBU]
1,000🏅 Top traders
| # | Name | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ21 | |
| 2 | Ṁ16 | |
| 3 | Ṁ9 | |
| 4 | Ṁ8 | |
| 5 | Ṁ1 |
This is a tough market to resolve, as AI tools seem to be a significant innovation for social isolation (including 50+ adults). Companies like Character.ai and numerous others provide AI friends and partners. There's also this article, don't know how much that's worth.
However, Abby seems to be focused on human-to-human interaction, and I didn't see any evidence of significant innovation in that regard. As such, I'm resolving to 30% probability - happy to discuss if anyone disagrees.