Will Benjamin Netanyahu (Bibi) be the prime minister of Israel at the end of 2024
449
2.1k
2.7k
2025
63%
chance

Following the recent conflict with Hamas, many Israelies question Bibi's leadership and might not elect him again.

That might lead to earlier elections and he might not be elected again, or even resign

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https://www.timesofisrael.com/histadrut-head-urges-early-elections-hints-at-potential-future-general-strike/

Interesting in that this is one of the few political factions that's been able to exert real pressure on bibi's government

(That said I still very much doubt anything happens this year)

reposted

Gideon Sa'ar and his party just left Netanyahu's coalition. Will this lead to more instability?

@Shump

“Saar's departure, along with another of his allies, is not expected to affect the stability of Netanyahu's government, which still controls a clear majority in parliament.”

https://apple.news/AC9ZIJf4bQBullDK_dq1wcg

Reuters. March 25, 2024 6:49 PM UTC

Israeli minister quits Netanyahu's unity government, saying he was sidelined

bought Ṁ50 NO

If not 2024, when will he leave office?

/SimonGrayson/when-will-benjamin-netanyahu-be-rep

bought Ṁ10 NO

https://www.timesofisrael.com/gallant-say-no-haredi-draft-bill-without-centrist-support-risking-coalition-crisis/

Yoav Gallant's surname is Gallant, meaning brave and heroic.

This is not a coincidence, because nothing is ever a coincidence.

predicts YES

Arbitrage:

repostedbought Ṁ75 of NO

So much potential for fluctuation

predicts NO

This is mispriced relative to another identical market

sold Ṁ48 of YES

@PlainBG fixed

bought Ṁ100 of YES

He would basically have to agree to a new election for this to happen before 2026 (or >4 members of his coalition would). Hard to imagine it happening.

bought Ṁ5 of NO

@ShakedKoplewitz You think UTJ/Shas and RZ will stay in the coalition? Do you think there will be public pressure to draft the Haredim? More brouhaha about the judicial reform. For an inquiry into October 7? Netanyahu is toast.

bought Ṁ10 of NO

@ShakedKoplewitz Anyway, I can definitely see 4 members of Likud bailing on him. Gallant for starters will definitely bail. And a few others. Come on. How hard do you think it would be for Bennett to buy off 4 moderate guys in Likud and promise them seats 2 through 5 in his new party?

predicts NO

@nathanwei Yeah the chareidim are not happy about mounting pressure to enlist

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