MANIFOLD
Which third party will successfully get elected a U.S. Representative, Senator, Governor, or President first?
2
Ṁ100Ṁ81
2040
34%
Libertarian Party
34%
No Labels
34%
Forward Party
28%
Green Party

  1. Eligible Parties

    • Any political party other than the Democratic or Republican parties counts.

    • National, state, or local third parties are all included.

    • Independents do not count.

  2. Candidate Requirements

    • The candidate must run officially on the ballot as a nominee of the third party.

    • Winning candidates cannot be previously elected officials who switch parties after being elected.

  3. Eligible Offices

    • U.S. Representative (House of Representatives)

    • U.S. Senator

    • Governor of a U.S. state or territory

    • President of the United States

  4. Timeframe

    • Applies to elections held after the market creation date (e.g., April 2, 2026).

    • Only the first occurrence counts for each party.

  5. Multiple Winners

    • If multiple third parties win simultaneously, the market resolves for all winning parties in the order they are officially certified.

  6. Disputes

    • Official election results from state election boards or the Federal Election Commission (FEC) are final.

      you may add more options but you must use there official name
      This market will stay open until the resolution criterias are met.

Market context
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This is mainly to map the trust and power of third parties over time.

When does this market resolve?

@AAR when a 3rd party wins a election for the U.S. Representative, Senator, Governor, or President

This is mainly to map the trust and power of third parties over time.

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