Which US 3rd party wins the presidency first?
3
225Ṁ16
2200
16%
Libertarian Party
7%
Green Party
7%
Constitution Party
8%
Forward Party
8%
Democratic Socialists of America
10%
American Capitalist Party
11%
America Party (Elon)
17%
American Communist Party
17%
Other

Resolution criteria

This market will resolve to the first U.S. third-party whose candidate wins a presidential election. A candidate is considered to have won if they receive a majority of the electoral votes as determined by the official results from the Federal Election Commission (FEC). If no third-party candidate wins a presidential election, the market will be unresolved.

Background

Historically, third-party candidates have faced significant challenges in U.S. presidential elections. Notable performances include:

  • Theodore Roosevelt (1912): Running under the Progressive Party, Roosevelt secured 27.4% of the popular vote and 88 electoral votes, the highest for a third-party candidate. (fox4news.com)

  • George Wallace (1968): As the American Independent Party nominee, Wallace won 13.5% of the popular vote and 45 electoral votes, primarily from Southern states. (fox4news.com)

  • Ross Perot (1992): An independent candidate, Perot garnered 18.9% of the popular vote but did not win any electoral votes. (fox4news.com)

  • Gary Johnson (2016): The Libertarian Party nominee received 3.3% of the popular vote, the highest for the party to date, but no electoral votes. (en.wikipedia.org)

  • Jill Stein (2016): The Green Party candidate obtained 1.1% of the popular vote without securing electoral votes. (en.wikipedia.org)

As of July 2025, no third-party or independent candidate has won a U.S. presidential election.

Considerations

The U.S. electoral system presents substantial obstacles for third-party candidates, including:

  • Winner-Takes-All System: Most states allocate all electoral votes to the candidate who wins the popular vote in that state, disadvantaging third-party candidates. (ebsco.com)

  • Ballot Access Laws: Varying state laws can make it difficult for third-party candidates to appear on ballots nationwide.

  • Debate Participation: Major party candidates often dominate presidential debates, limiting exposure for third-party candidates.

  • Update 2025-07-09 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Per the creator, a winning candidate must be running avowedly on a third party's ticket.

    • Independent candidates will not count for resolution.

    • A plain endorsement from a third party is insufficient.

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