Resolution criteria

This market will resolve to the first U.S. third-party whose candidate wins a presidential election. A candidate is considered to have won if they receive a majority of the electoral votes as determined by the official results from the Federal Election Commission (FEC). If no third-party candidate wins a presidential election, the market will be unresolved.

Background

Historically, third-party candidates have faced significant challenges in U.S. presidential elections. Notable performances include:

• Theodore Roosevelt (1912): Running under the Progressive Party, Roosevelt secured 27.4% of the popular vote and 88 electoral votes, the highest for a third-party candidate. (fox4news.com)

• George Wallace (1968): As the American Independent Party nominee, Wallace won 13.5% of the popular vote and 45 electoral votes, primarily from Southern states. (fox4news.com)

• Ross Perot (1992): An independent candidate, Perot garnered 18.9% of the popular vote but did not win any electoral votes. (fox4news.com)

• Gary Johnson (2016): The Libertarian Party nominee received 3.3% of the popular vote, the highest for the party to date, but no electoral votes. (en.wikipedia.org)

• Jill Stein (2016): The Green Party candidate obtained 1.1% of the popular vote without securing electoral votes. (en.wikipedia.org)

As of July 2025, no third-party or independent candidate has won a U.S. presidential election.

Considerations

The U.S. electoral system presents substantial obstacles for third-party candidates, including:

• Winner-Takes-All System: Most states allocate all electoral votes to the candidate who wins the popular vote in that state, disadvantaging third-party candidates. (ebsco.com)

• Ballot Access Laws: Varying state laws can make it difficult for third-party candidates to appear on ballots nationwide.

• Debate Participation: Major party candidates often dominate presidential debates, limiting exposure for third-party candidates.

• Update 2025-07-09 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Per the creator, a winning candidate must be running avowedly on a third party's ticket.

  • Independent candidates will not count for resolution.

  • A plain endorsement from a third party is insufficient.