All time range options are in Pacific Time as defined by the time on this page: https://www.timeanddate.com/worldclock/usa/los-angeles
All time range options are inclusive
This question will resolve to the time range option that is contained in the string representing the resolved time of this question https://manifold.markets/Mira/will-a-prompt-that-enables-gpt4-to (so if that market resolved at "Jan 3, 2024, 2:00:00 PM" PDT then this market resolves to Jan 2 - Jan 11)
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@Calvin6b82 This can be resolved to Jan 12th - Jan 21st https://manifold.markets/Mira/will-a-prompt-that-enables-gpt4-to#
Why is this one bet so high? Even if assume a true solve probability of of 7/12 (which I think may be a bit low), there's only a 94% chance we reach 7 losses by the 21st. Plus you have to factor in that Mira may keep it unresolved for a day to allow the offer of running the autofail days.
@TobyBW I was hoping no one would notice and my 2% limit order would get taken 😅