What percentage of the way through 2024 will this market resolve?
6
115
į¹€110
2025
59%
chance

I rolled a 366 sided die, which came up as some number n. This market will, on the n-th day of 2024, resolve to PROB = n/366.

I will not bet in this market.

Get į¹€600 play money
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I can't believe manifold decided to do the boring strategy instead of the good strategy

predicts YES

@April I am going to set up a bot that trades the market to exactly half of the remaining time in the year every day :threat:

@Tetraspace this is still not the good strategy

I know a very good strategy but it can't be publicized