What percentage of the way through 2024 will this market resolve?

110Ṁ170

resolved Jun 18

Resolved as

47%

ALL

I rolled a 366 sided die, which came up as some number n. This market will, on the n-th day of 2024, resolve to PROB = n/366.

I will not bet in this market.

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1,000

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This market has a ~49% chance of resolving as YES in early 2030

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I can't believe manifold decided to do the boring strategy instead of the good strategy

predictedYES

@April I am going to set up a bot that trades the market to exactly half of the remaining time in the year every day :threat:

@Tetraspace this is still not the good strategy

I know a very good strategy but it can't be publicized

the good strategy was "keep it locked on the current % of the way through the year"

People are also trading

This market has a ~49% chance of resolving as YES in early 2026

49% chance

Will this market resolve below 50%?

49% chance

Will I be able to resolve this market myself at the end of 2030?

61% chance

Will I have a surprising market resolution before the end of 2026?

45% chance

This market has a ~49% chance of resolving as YES in early 2030

49% chance

How will this market be resolved?

Will this market resolve?

96% chance

Will this market resolve below 50% probability

51% chance

🏅 Top traders

People are also trading

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