Resolution criteria

This market resolves to YES if official Iranian military forces—specifically the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) or the Islamic Republic of Iran Army (Artesh)—conduct any physical, kinetic military strike (including launching ballistic/cruise missiles, offensive drones, naval attacks, or artillery) against a foreign target between August 26, 2026, and October 1, 2026, at 00:00 UTC.

Otherwise, this market resolves to NO.

Definitions and Boundary Cases:

• Foreign Targets: Includes foreign military assets, commercial shipping vessels, or any territory outside of Iran’s internationally recognized borders.

• Proxy Actions: Attacks conducted solely by regional proxy groups (such as the Houthis, Hezbollah, or Iraqi militias) do not qualify unless credible international intelligence or official military statements confirm that Iranian state forces directly participated in the launch or physical execution of the strike.

• Non-Kinetic Events: Cyberattacks, GPS jamming, or other electronic warfare actions do not qualify.

• Defensive Action: Iranian forces firing air defenses inside Iranian airspace to intercept incoming attacks does not count as an offensive "strike".

• Credible Sources: Resolution will be determined using reports from major international news agencies (e.g., Reuters, Associated Press, BBC) or established defense research organizations (e.g., the Institute for the Study of War).

Background

Following the outbreak of the U.S.-Israel-Iran war in February 2026—which resulted in the assassination of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei—hostilities were temporarily paused by a Pakistani-mediated 60-day ceasefire signed in mid-June. However, those peace talks broke down over disputes regarding the Strait of Hormuz, and the ceasefire officially expired in mid-August.

Tensions have risen again in late August 2026. The U.S. Treasury has launched "Operation Economic Outcast" to tighten sanctions, and U.S. Central Command recently cleared mines from the Strait of Hormuz. Security analysts warn that the Iranian regime is actively debating direct military responses to this renewed economic pressure, including potential strikes on regional energy infrastructure or shipping. This market wagers on whether Iran will launch a kinetic strike before October 2026.

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