Will there be a serious neo-Luddite movement (complete with major organizations and funding topping ~$1 Million USD) by 2030?
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2030
80%
chance

Resolves "Yes" if multiple organizations that identify explicitly as Neo-Luddite crop up by 2030 and amass funding in total that amounts to $1 million USD.

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predicts YES

Six months ago: AI, crypto twitter, Manifold, billionaire startup twitter, RW twitters very distinct

Today: all five simultaneously dunking on doomers

predicts YES

Looks like the term "Yuddite" is quickly gaining traction. Does this term count as "neo-luddite" in your estimation?

predicts YES

@LarsDoucet I'm going to say yes; it's certainly in the spirit of what I was getting at; so any "Yuddite" organizations can count

predicts NO

@CadeMataya But they have to self-identify as such to count, right?

bought Ṁ8 of YES

Reject yud; retvrn to kac

Does this resolve entirely on them using the phrase "neo-luddite" or "luddite" in their branding about themselves?

If someone just uses luddite phraseology ("against AI and automation that displace workers") or some other equivalent phrase like "butlerian jihad" does that count?

Or if they point to the root cause being enclosure of the commons & natural resources (as many argue the original Luddite struggle was at root about), does that count?

@LarsDoucet
It resolves on them identifying specifically as "neo-luddite" or "luddite," even if just in passing or during interviews.

Phraseology explicitly lifted from luddite literature or prior luddite movements can be a cause for resolving positively if it is a consistent part of the organizations branding coupled with ideals that would generally be considered somewhat anti-tech.

I would not consider the enclosure of the commons or natural resources to fall under "luddite" for the purposes of this market.

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