The election occurs on April 1, 2025, with polls closing at 7:00 PM EDT. Preliminary results are typically available late that night or early April 2, though final certification may take longer. For this prediction to resolve by April 2, the market will resolve on the most complete unofficial tallies available by that date unless a recount is triggered (Florida law mandates a machine recount if the margin is 0.5% or less, and a manual recount if 0.25% or less).

- Given the district’s strong Republican lean (Trump won it by 30 points in 2024), Weil’s victory would be an upset, influenced by factors like turnout, fundraising (Weil’s $10M vs. Fine’s $1M), and voter sentiment.

The outcome will be determined based on the official election results as certified by the Florida Division of Elections or reported by major news outlets (e.g., The Associated Press, The New York Times, or POLITICO) by the end of April 2, 2025. Josh Weil will be considered the winner if he receives more votes than Randy Fine in the final certified count for the special election. If the results remain unofficial or contested (e.g., due to recounts or legal challenges) by midnight EDT on April 2, 2025, the resolution will be delayed until an official winner is declared, but the initial resolution attempt will rely on the most authoritative preliminary data available at that time.