Resolution criteria

The Republican primary for Governor of Florida is scheduled for August 18, 2026. This market resolves YES if James Fishback receives the most votes among Republican candidates in the primary and wins the nomination. It resolves NO if any other candidate wins the primary. Resolution will be determined by official results from the Florida Division of Elections at https://dos.elections.myflorida.com/.

Background

James Fishback is a 31-year-old investor and hedge fund manager who launched his campaign for the Republican nomination for Florida governor in November 2025. The other major Republican candidates are former House Speaker Paul Renner and U.S. Rep. Byron Donalds. Donalds holds a significant polling lead, a deep cash advantage, and the coveted endorsement of President Donald Trump. Donalds' campaign has raised more than $40 million since February. In a January 2026 poll, Donalds led Fishback 47%-5%, and his lead increased to 76%-6% when voters were informed about Trump's endorsement. In a separate January poll, Donalds led 37%-23% overall, though Fishback led 30%-25% among voters age 18-29.

Considerations

It is unlikely Fishback will win the primary. Fishback previously worked for hedge fund Greenlight Capital until 2023 and founded Azoria Partners, an investment management firm that was shut down by the company's independent trustees over legal concerns. In January 2026, a federal magistrate judge ordered Fishback to surrender Azoria stock and luxury items to US Marshals for sale to Greenlight. Fishback has been criticized as racist and antisemitic during his 2026 gubernatorial campaign.

This description was generated by AI.