Resolution criteria

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Scott Wiener is declared the official winner of the general election for California's 11th congressional district in the 2026 U.S. House elections, scheduled for November 3, 2026. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No". Resolution will be based on the certified results published by the California Secretary of State.

Background

Scott Wiener is currently a Democratic member of the California State Senate, representing the 11th district, which includes San Francisco and parts of San Mateo County. He was first elected to the State Senate in 2016 and re-elected in 2020 and 2024. Wiener officially announced his campaign for the U.S. House of Representatives in California's 11th congressional district in October 2025. This seat is currently held by Representative Nancy Pelosi.

Considerations

The boundaries of California's U.S. House districts could be subject to change. California Proposition 50, a measure to redraw congressional district maps, is scheduled for a special election on November 4, 2025. If passed, these new maps would be used starting with the 2026 midterm elections. Additionally, incumbent Representative Nancy Pelosi has not yet publicly announced whether she will seek re-election in 2026.