Will the next use of a nuclear bomb in combat be due to a mistaken belief that another bomb was used? | Manifold

Will the next use of a nuclear bomb in combat be due to a mistaken belief that another bomb was used?

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Ṁ272

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30%

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This resolves after the next strategic (not tactical) nuclear bomb has been used in combat, and the circumstances surrounding its use are publicly known and mainly undisputed.

If the entity who decided to use the bomb did so because they believed that another strategic nuclear bomb had just been used in combat, and that belief was mistaken, this market resolves YES. The mistake may be because of faulty sensors or any other reason. Otherwise, the market resolves NO.

The resolution date will be extended as necessary. I may bet in this market.

This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.

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Do tactical nuclear weapons count?

sold Ṁ13 NO

@JuJumper Good point. I forgot that tactical nuclear weapons exist and was thinking of strategic nuclear weapons, so I'll say that only strategic nuclear weapons count. I'll change the resolution criteria.

Let me know if anyone traded on this market with the assumption that tactical nuclear weapons would count and that would significantly change your bet - I don't mind refunding you

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