The next time the US government issues an incoming missile alert, will it be a false alarm?
6
28
Ṁ139Ṁ170
2080
83%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2018_Hawaii_false_missile_alert
In order to qualify, it must be:
Initiated by a US government agency or official.
Sent to a broad class of people, such as all civilians in a certain state or city of at least 100,000 people. (With the exception of small groups of people such as those without a phone or who opted out of alerts.)
Occur in the US.
If the alert was sent by mistake or for deceptive purposes, this resolves YES. If it was sent due to legitimate, reasonable concern, even if no missiles were actually launched, this resolves NO.
Get Ṁ200 play money
Related questions
Will a nuclear warhead be detonated in 2024?
22% chance
Will a nuclear weapon be detonated before Trump is President again?
47% chance
Will the next use of a nuclear bomb in combat be due to a mistaken belief that another bomb was used?
30% chance
If North Korea attempts to detonate a nuclear weapon, will it succeed?
75% chance
Will the next North Korean nuclear weapon test be on a sunny morning?
78% chance
Will there be a nuclear close call or accidental detonation before 2030?
37% chance
When will North Korea conduct a new intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) test next?
Will a nuclear weapon be detonated in 2025?
18% chance
Will a nuclear missile be successfully intercepted in 2024?
3% chance
Where will the next nuclear detonation occur?