Excludes nuclear tests by countries, (except a test gone wrong like a nk test ends up in sk type situation)

Resolution criteria

This market resolves YES if a nuclear weapon is detonated in a hostile capacity during a conflict, and this detonation is widely characterized by major international news outlets (e.g., Reuters, AP, BBC, The New York Times) as the catalyst that ends that specific, ongoing, large-scale armed conflict.

This market resolves NO if a nuclear weapon is detonated in a hostile capacity and is reported by major international news outlets as the precipitating event that initiates or significantly escalates a new, worldwide, or multi-national conflict.

• "Hostile capacity" excludes controlled nuclear tests.

• A "test gone wrong" resulting in damage or loss of life in another sovereign territory that leads to a conflict will count as the beginning of a conflict.

• If a detonation does not clearly lead to the end of an existing conflict or the beginning of a new one according to the consensus of major news reporting, the market will resolve based on the primary reported intent or consequence of the action.

• The market will resolve upon clear, credible reporting of the event's aftermath and its impact on the status of the conflict.

Background

The use of a nuclear weapon in a conflict has not occurred since the United States atomic bombings of Hiroshima and Nagasaki in 1945. These events are historically cited as the immediate precursor to the end of World War II. Since that time, the doctrine of Mutually Assured Destruction (MAD) and the taboo surrounding nuclear use have served as significant deterrents against their employment in modern warfare. This market explores the geopolitical dichotomy of nuclear weapons: their potential to force an abrupt conclusion to a war versus their potential to trigger catastrophic, global-scale escalation.

This description was generated by AI.