Would-be strawberry man Riley Coyote commented on Sam Altman's post, asking "can I tell them about the thing?" Sam replied "which thing?" (possibly implying that Sam knows Riley and that Riley knows some internal information)

Further down the thread, Riley made this claim about an OpenAI model creating "a new type of an existing drug" that is "better than anything any human had ever made:" https://x.com/RileyRalmuto/status/1880768187475620167

This market is meant to resolve YES if that claim is true, with some wiggle room in case we don't actually get direct confirmation about this specific event.

Specifically, this market resolves positively if we get confirmation that an OpenAI model created an improved design of an existing drug, whether internally to OpenAI or prompted by some external party. As long as we hear about it sometime in 2025, it counts, regardless of when it happened.

An "improved drug" may not get through all the FDA testing to make sure it's actually safe by the end of 2025, but should show a clear improvement at accomplishing its primary purpose during preliminary evaluations. Even if it looks like the new drug has more side effects, is more expensive, etc. it still counts as an "improvement."

The model has to do a significant majority of the work in coming up with the new design. Synthesizing the drug and running tests doesn't count as part of this "work." It's okay if the model has a pretty low success rate, e.g. it comes up with 10 full-fledged designs, all of them get tested, and only one of them is an "improvement."

I will not bet in this market.