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@CDBiddulph how does this resolve if Mr beast doesn’t provide a date it was solved but from the tweet it seems it’s clear its between March 1st-7th

@Mochi Its possible that it wasn't March 1st through 7th tho

@phenomist @Soni Could one of you confirm your team solved the puzzle within that date range? I'd be very surprised if not but may as well hear it from the source

@CDBiddulph should be within that date range

@CDBiddulph Hints posted on March 1st and March 3rd implied nobody had won yet, and the winner was announced on March 6th, therefore the winning answer must have been submitted between the 1st and 7th.

@xjp They also implied in the hints that the answer checking process was not automatic and that they were manually reviewing answers, so not won does not necessarily mean not submitted

It sounds like there’s uncertainty from the winning team around when their winning submission was sent in

@JimHays I can confirm that the solve was between 1-7 March, and that there are sensible reasons for us to not narrow it down further publicly.

There are many trolls online unfortunately, and there's solid OpSec implications from the winning team telling the precise date/time/submission that won.

https://x.com/MrBeast/status/2029970184887214343

I made a multi-market just to see what happens:

/Eliza/mrbeast-1-million-puzzle-multi-mark

🤷‍♂️ How can that be true? Good trick if I can pull it off again.

@AlanTennant it's when you buy "other" and then a new answer is added

@CourierSix thanks :)

@AlanTennant no problem, it confused me at first too :)

@CDBiddulph Might be time to split "Other" again. The contest ends on 2 Apr, so that's only 3 more options to be added

Sure. "March 1 - March 7" automatically went from ~48% to ~38%, so someone should probably bet it back up. I wonder why the probability mass for the new options doesn't all come from "Other"

@Soni this is unfair to those of us who have NEVER.

@KevinBlaw That makes no sense. Never is not the same as Other, so splitting it into "Mar 15-21" and "Other" again is completely logical

@CDBiddulph The reason is due to the way the system injects liquidity on the new answer. Depending on the state of 'Other', there are two versions of how that happens. The most common one results in what you saw there.

See here for more details.

Same goes to Kevin -- this transaction has no effect on the shares you already hold in Never.

@Soni what if someone bet on “other” before never getting was an option. Betting “other” is a stupid bet that shouldn’t be rewarded. And claiming it’s logical shows you are just desperate to salvage something from nothing.

@KevinBlaw betting other is not a stupid bet. It means you think it will be solved after the listed dates.

@KevinBlaw Then your problem is that Never should not be made, or that Never should not be made late. Never exists right now, which is not the same as Other. Mar 15-21 would fall on other, not never.

You're complaining about a made up problem

@Soni I stand in my arguments.

I win.

@KevinBlaw :sus:

February 8 yes holders, sell your shares, probability is too high for that date

@Jack1 in case you are quoting pm odds, this market resolves differently to that one, because this one resolves based on when the correct solution is submitted, where the pm one resolves based on Mr beast’s announcement.

@Mochi ok, I didn’t know Polymarket was doing this also. But If it was submitted on Feb 8 it would have been announced already

@Jack1 oh I misread, thought you were talking about Feb 28th as in this week. Then well I agree Feb 8 seems very unlikely

For reference, here's the Polymarket link. This market came first though 😌

@CDBiddulph Wow 15% by Feb 28 is literally free money

@phenomist has there been evidence that it’s about to be solved?

@Mochi

https://manifold.markets/CDBiddulph/will-the-winner-of-mr-beasts-1m-sup

@bens

@phenomist i believe in you!