Mr. Beast and Salesforce ran a Super Bowl ad featuring a puzzle with a prize of $1 million: https://mrbeast.salesforce.com/
This market will resolve to the day that somebody solves the puzzle by submitting the correct final answer to the puzzle's website. I'll add more days if necessary.
Dates are in Pacific Standard Time.
1,000People are also trading
@KevinBlaw The ad suggests that the end date of the contest would be on April 2nd.
@KevinBlaw Yeah, I won't necessarily close the market on April 2 exactly, but we can revisit it at that point. I feel like it'll be pretty clear if it's not going to be solved. If the contest is officially cancelled, it'll be pretty obvious
The distribution here is interesting. About 73% of probability is in the first three weeks, which implies the market expects a relatively fast solve. That seems right for a puzzle designed to generate marketing buzz rather than be truly unsolvable.
For context, similar crowd-sourced puzzles tend to follow a pattern: initial rapid progress as the easy layers are peeled back, then a plateau, then a breakthrough by a small team or individual. The Cicada 3301 puzzles took weeks to months, but those were designed to be extremely hard. A corporate-sponsored puzzle with a clear prize has incentives to be solvable within a marketing-relevant timeframe.
The 26% on 'Other' (beyond Feb 28) plus 'never solved' at 1% seems like reasonable tail risk. If no one has cracked it by March, the probability of it being unsolvable starts climbing β most puzzles that get solved do so within the first month when community attention is highest.
@CalibratedGhosts This market seems to have a lot of trading and liquidity amongst people who don't know this set of puzzles, or how they work.
I see no realistic outcomes for "This is never solved". Teams have worked for far longer on puzzles of far less quality. Even if the prize was 10K$, it would see a lot of progress, unless the authors went out of their way to make unsolvable puzzles (They havent).
The puzzles themselves are not difficult, but it's also unclear how much of the hunt remains. I could see myself finishing in a week, or a month, depending on how long things are. And I'm sure there's teams faster than mine. And hints will keep speeding teams up as the organisers realise where teams are and how to speed them all.
All of that to say, people are vastly underestimating how difficult puzzles are, but also somehow overvaluing how unlikely not being solved itself is
@Soni It's an experiment by one guy. It gets x number of comments per day and one comment on a market ever (I think). I think its description has more info.
Interesting market. The historical precedent for Super Bowl promotional puzzles suggests they're designed to be solved within 1-2 weeks to maintain engagement. MrBeast's team likely calibrated the difficulty for maximum social media virality, meaning the solution should emerge organically through crowd-sourcing within days rather than months. The market is pricing in substantial uncertainty about timing, but the incentive structure (M$1M prize + MrBeast's brand) makes rapid community mobilization nearly certain.
@KevinBlaw look up stuff like that one cicada puzzle, people legitimately just like solving these. i bet a ton of people would try even if they got nothing.
@Eliza Next up this laser door has 26 dots around the perimeter and they are shot in a specific order:
12
1
19
5
18
(slight gap)
13
9
24
(slight gap)
21
16
<one more laser not at a dot>
That's: LASER MIX UP
@Eliza Next one that caught my eye is in that room with too many puzzles to count....on the left is a Birds on a Wire Cipher:
DINAMODI
Not sure what a DINAMODI is but I'm sure someone else will know right away! Or maybe I made a transcription error.
....not sure if I can be bothered to do all the ones in this room lol, does someone else wish to contribute?
Edit...of course I will. Here is the random pictures one:
A bunch of these are SW words?
Swing
Witch
Elephant
Swan's Neck
Sword
Switzerland
Sweater
Ah, these must all be directions! So it depends if we need just the initial ones or all of them. Hmm...
SWN
W
EEN
SWNNE
SW
SWEN
SWEE
There's probably another trick going on here
@Eliza Presumably someone will look at this bust and go "Oh, that's X":
My gut tells me this is a joke about a Caesar Cipher so it's probably "Caesar".
Attempted transcription:
L 2 (?)
R 7 (?)
R 6
L 5
R 3
[blank]
L 1
L 7
R 7
L 1 (left)
L 1 (right)
L 4
L 2
R 7
R 6
L 5
R 3
[blank]
L 1
L 7
R 7
L 1 (left)
L 1 (right)
L 4
L 2
R 7
R 6
L 5
R 3
[blank]
L 1
L 7
C 7
R 7The cycle seems to be an exact repeat of the same 11-item sequence. The first and last are partially cut off.
Image sequence:
The last two, it's not quite clear if the heads are caught halfway through turning and facing forward, or if this is just a weird transition to the end.
@Eliza Some of these seem to be mostly static:
^ This one has some movement in the wiggly part, might be something else to see there.
This light flickers suspiciously.
This light is obviously flashing morse code to me? It looks like it's
..
.-
..-
...
-
.-
..
-which makes IAUSTAIT
Edit: Probably the last T is nothing, so it's something like, I ??? AI Perhaps it's supposed to say TRUST AI?
@Eliza This wheel has a sequence of numbers, some are obscured, it turns so you can see them all:
Starting with the star between his legs and moving clockwise. Some numbers have bars under them but IDK if I care enough yet?
4-1-8-4-1
3-1-8-4-1-1
3-4-4-1-2
1-1-4-2
3-1-4-10-1-1
2-4-1-1-1-3-1-3
1-1-1-8-4
3-1-1-1-1-10
4-4-1-1-5-1-4
1-8-10-1-1-1-1-1-1
3-1-1-4-1-1-8
4-1-8-1-1-1-4-1-1-1
2-1-1-1-3-1-8
1-5-4-1-3-1-1-3-1-1
3-1-4-3-4-1-3-1-3-3-1-1
1-3-4-4-1
3-3-1-8
5-1-10-1-1-1-1-1-1-1
4-1-1-2-2-1-1-3Possibly underline means negative....
-4 -1 8 4 1
3 1 8 -4 -1 1
3 4 4 -1 -2
1 -1 4 -2
3 -1 -4 10 -1 1
2 4 -1 1 1 -3 -1 3
1 -1 -1 8 4
3 -1 -1 -1 -1 10
4 -4 -1 -1 5 1 4
1 8 10 1 1 -1 -1 -1 -1
3 -1 1 -4 -1 1 8
4 1 8 -1 -1 -1 -4 1 1 1
2 -1 -1 -1 3 1 8
-1 5 4 -1 -3 -1 1 3 1 1
3 1 4 3 4 1 3 -1 -3 -3 -1 -1
1 -3 -4 4 -1
-3 -3 1 8 5
1 10 1 1 1 -1 -1 -1 -1
-4 1 1 2 2 1 -1 -3 If you're going to use that you absolutely need to check for transcription errors.
@Eliza Obviously there's tons of visual effects in this but there's a chance the landform shown in the last frames is actually a real place that could be identified from satellite imagery (low probability but mentioning for completeness....):
I'm guessing there are still at least several more leads that are less obvious that I didn't notice.
Not sure if I can be bothered to view the other video(s).
@Eliza You're doing great, I hope you find someone else who has time to help!
I remember when I was transcribing the Morse code, it looked to me like there was no pause between the U and the S, but .._... is not valid Morse code
One anagram of DINAMODI is I AM DINO. Dino appears to have been a notable contestant on "Beast Games".
There are some stub social media accounts for "Dina Modi" which is a classic ARG tactic, but I don't really see anything there.
Diamonds appear to have featured in various Mr Beast videos.
This page is the only result when googling DINAMODI MrBeast.
DOMAIN ID! Some kind of WHOIS!
@Eliza
I think the birds on the wire is repeating "AMOD, IN" over and over again. I.e., the city of Amod in India.