Resolution criteria

MrBeast's subscriber count will be verified against YouTube's official subscriber count as of December 31, 2027. The market resolves YES if the channel reaches 500 million subscribers by that date, NO otherwise. Verification can be checked via YouTube's official channel page or third-party tracking services like Social Blade.

Background

As of December 31, 2025, MrBeast has 460 million subscribers and gains approximately 444,000 subscribers per day. In June 2025, Donaldson became the first YouTuber to surpass 400 million subscribers. Reaching 500 million would require gaining 40 million additional subscribers over approximately two years, which at current growth rates would require sustained momentum.

Considerations

YouTube subscriber growth rates are not linear and can fluctuate based on content performance, algorithm changes, and viewer engagement. MrBeast's channel has demonstrated exceptional growth, but maintaining the current daily gain rate over 24 months would be necessary to reach the target.