Long version (canonical): Will @Eliza provably know the answer to the million dollar MrBeast Salesforce whatever puzzle before it is publicly announced by MrBeast/Salesforce or their team?
I will not trade on this market.
Close date will be extended if necessary
1,000People are also trading
@Eliza for what it's worth I am still actively prodding this thing at least 1 hour per day the last several days so if you think I am roughly as useful as the average puzzle solver and the last step will be somewhat random, my guess is the true odds should be somewhere between 1/1000 and 1/10000. 1.6% still seems high.
Based on what I understand about the current state of the puzzle, my own efforts, and the efforts of others, there should be some people out there with at least a 10x higher chance than me and very likely some with 100x as of this moment.
@Eliza The market has never been about whether you would win. It’s always been about whether the solution is leaked broadly before the Beast team announces it. But it seems even Colin didn’t know at the time of winning which of the submissions was the correct solution. They will probably get confirmation while filming the wrap up video, but that may also not leak broadly. As far as I can tell the puzzle is so inelegant that there’s no way to “know” you’ve solved it unless told by someone who knows yhe answer that your solution matches the intended one
@marvingardens In the description (“before it is publicly announced”) does “it” refer to “the solution code”, “the fact that the puzzle is solved”, or something else?
@JimHays "it" refers to the object of the prior clause:
the answer to the million dollar MrBeast Salesforce whatever puzzle
@marvingardens Thanks! That was my read, but I wanted to confirm since there could potentially be a big lag between the two.
@marvingardens 1.6%? What if someone just messages me the answer before it's publicly announced. Traders should be super careful!
@Eliza there's no chance we win the million dollars lol but I'm down to collaborate on this tomorrow for a bit
@bens From what I can tell, the actual nature of solving this will require basically a combination of:
Really good information gathering, organization, and filtering
Understanding the overall shape of the puzzle, where you are, what you need to do next, etc.
A fair stroke of luck to stay one step ahead of others
It looks like a huge amount of information is being compiled publicly or semi-publicly, so you have to assume someone has already compiled all of that and also has a bit of special sauce beyond that. This is the type of thing a team of 5-10 individuals who have worked on puzzle hunts in the past would be good at managing, especially with the lax rules about sharing solves.
You will see dozens of completely wrong or even plausible-but-wrong threads and need to identify just the one that is correct and not get bogged down on the others. You will need to fully grasp exactly what the goal is and not get stuck on side paths that are pointless wastes of time. It looks highly multimedial, expect to see almost every possible trick in the book. They didn't have infinite time to plan it (according to the in-puzzle lore at least), but they did use a team that has vast experiences with puzzles.
---
That said, if you just want to enjoy solving some puzzles, it looks like a number of the individual sub-puzzles would be fun on their own!
@Eliza I'm not really a big fan of this type of puzzle where you need to seek out social media and stuff. But among puzzle solving people I have absolutely no special sauce whatsoever. Other than just knowing a general idea of the shape of these things.
@Eliza Even then there's a little wiggle room where you could find out the answer from the public after it's solved but before the answer is announced. Room to make some mana