By 2050, will informed people significantly reduce their belief in the extent of free will they possess?

1kṀ1774

2049

50%

chance

ALL

Currently most people would say they have a large amount of free will. Will there be enough studies and literature published by 2050 to reduce how scientifically literate people think about the degree of Free Will.

Examples: greater understanding of how environment, neurotransmitters, genetics and more influenced thinking and choices.

I'm not sure of a good quantitative way to measure the change. But it should be large enough that it's easy to agree by comparing common viewpoints across time.

Science

Get

1,000

to start trading!

People are also trading

Will more than 50% of US population be convinced that free will is an illusion before year 2050?

11% chance

After reading Determined by Robert Sapolsky, will I be <50% convinced of the existence of free will?

53% chance

Will computers know our beliefs better than ourselves in 2030?

72% chance

At the beginning of 2026, what percentage of Manifold users will believe that an AI intelligence explosion is a significant concern before 2075?

66% chance

At the beginning of 2040, what percentage of Manifold users will believe that an AI intelligence explosion is a significant concern before 2075?

69% chance

At the beginning of 2035, what percentage of Manifold users will believe that an AI intelligence explosion is a significant concern before 2075?

73% chance

Will more than 100 million people self-describe as believing in some "AI Religion" by 2035?

40% chance

At the beginning of 2030, what percentage of Manifold users will believe that an AI intelligence explosion is a significant concern before 2075?

73% chance

Do humans have free will?

21% chance

Will the > 1/3 of US adults believe we are living in a computer simulation by 2040?

Sort by:

The emergence of high-quality consumer AGI systems will totally change how the average person thinks about all of the usual "what makes us human" questions. Consciousness, free will, etc

How does this resolve if the consensus is that 'free will' isn't a particularly meaningful concept, and/or is conflating multiple concepts, or something along those lines?

predictedYES

@adele I guess it would depend on the context at the end date. N/A if it’s too murky. Whatever the underlying concepts, currently a lot of people talk about discipline, making choices, self-control, and seem to demonstrate a belief they can make conscious decisions.