
Will more than 50% of US population be convinced that free will is an illusion before year 2050?
29
1kṀ6582050
11%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
I will resolve this to positive if at any time before the end of 2050 a survey of US citizens, with a sample size that is descriptive of the whole population, will say that more than 50% of the population, agrees with the sentence "Free Will is an illusion"
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000 to start trading!
Sort by:
@tailcalled This simply proves that determinism is not an hindrance to free will, it does not prove its existence, simply that some of the people that jump to the conclusion that free will is an illusion, do so fallaciously
Related questions
Related questions
By 2050, will informed people significantly reduce their belief in the extent of free will they possess?
50% chance
Will the > 1/3 of US adults believe we are living in a computer simulation by 2040?
15% chance
After reading Determined by Robert Sapolsky, will I be <50% convinced of the existence of free will?
59% chance
At the beginning of 2026, what percentage of Manifold users will believe that an AI intelligence explosion is a significant concern before 2075?
66% chance
Will more than 100 million people self-describe as believing in some "AI Religion" by 2035?
19% chance
Will 0.1% of the US population have traveled in a flying car by 2050?
42% chance
Will >50% of the United States population identify as vegan by 2080?
30% chance
Will the US be a democracy in 2050?
82% chance
Will 25% of Americans be cognitively augmented humans by 2040?
20% chance
At the beginning of 2040, what percentage of Manifold users will believe that an AI intelligence explosion is a significant concern before 2075?
67% chance