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MANIFOLD
Brazil 2026 Election: First Round Surprises
13
Ṁ100Ṁ834
resolved Oct 5
Resolved
YES
Flávio Bolsonaro finish first in the first round
Resolved
YES
Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro finish within 2 percentage points of each other
Resolved
NO
Lula win the presidency in the first round
Resolved
NO
A presidential candidate other than Lula or Flávio Bolsonaro receive 8%+ of valid votes

Resolution: official first-round results published by Brazil's TSE.

Politics
Elections
2026 US Congressional Elections
Latin America
Brazil
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TSE’s October 4, 21:30:14 Brasília partial tally (99.37% of sections) shows Flávio 55,902,879 valid votes and Lula 53,364,273: a lead of 2,538,606, exceeding at most 1,017,764 remaining electors. This mathematically secures Flávio’s first-round plurality assuming no revisions to counted votes; it is not a final declaration. Could you resolve “Flávio Bolsonaro finish first in the first round” YES, or wait for final TSE status if required?

Source: https://resultados.tse.jus.br/oficial/ele2026/6257/dados/br/br-c0001-e006257-u.json

Disclosure: I hold YES on this answer.

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