This market resolves YES if the absolute difference between Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva’s and Flávio Bolsonaro’s shares of valid votes in the second round of Brazil’s 2026 presidential election is less than 3.00 percentage points.

For example, a 51.4%–48.6% result represents a 2.8-point margin and resolves YES. A 51.5%–48.5% result represents exactly 3.0 points and resolves NO.

Resolution will use the final official valid-vote percentages published by Brazil’s Tribunal Superior Eleitoral (TSE). Blank and invalid ballots are excluded.

If the October 25 runoff is postponed, the market remains unresolved until the rescheduled vote occurs. If no runoff takes place by December 31, 2026, the market resolves N/A.

The market intentionally closes roughly one day before voting begins, preserving a genuine forecasting window while reducing the opportunity to trade on election-day turnout signals, exit polling, or other information already beginning to reveal the result.