What ELO rating range will OpenAI's O3 AI achieve in chess by June 2025?
2
1.5kṀ70
resolved Jan 21
ResolvedN/A
14%
Below 1000 ELO
27%
1000-1499 ELO
14%
1500-1799 ELO
14%
1800-1999 ELO
14%
2000-2299 ELO
16%
2300+ ELO

This market predicts the ELO rating range that OpenAI's most performant version of o3 AI at the time will achieve in chess, either through official CCRL (Computer Chess Ratings List) testing or a market author acknowledged credible alternative source by June 21, 2025.


Resolution criteria:

  • The rating range that contains o3's demonstrated or credibly estimated ELO will resolve as YES

  • All other ranges resolve as ----

  • Resolves all N/A if o3 cannot complete full chess games consistently enough to establish an ELO rating

Edit: Not sure If all other ranges should be N/A or NO. Consulting now. Will update.

Nuking the market until I learn to do it fairly. Result N/A

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