53
127
768
resolved Jan 1
Resolved
NO
Resolves "Yes" if SpaceX IPOs on or before December 31st 2023. Jun 3, 8:54am: Note: If Starlink as a separate entity IPOs but SpaceX does not, this resolves "NO".
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predicted YES

Anyone else find it funny to see this at 5% and then get those scammy ads for Starlink IPO? (I get them on YouTube on my phone all the time)

sold Ṁ243 of NO
getting liquidity back. I would buy no down to ~0.01%
bought Ṁ200 of NO
Zero chance this happens before they go to Mars.
bought Ṁ150 of NO
No way this happens while Elon is living and before there's a Mars colony. I'd buy the probability down to 5% if I had the mana.
predicted YES
@MattP I don't understand the connection to Mars colony. Why do you think Starship and Starlink are going to succeed without going public?!? That is nonsensical. You think private markets are the way to go during a recession?? Not when you have Elon's profile, then a recession is the perfect time. Liquidity events don't happen after the big event, they happen in the run up to the big event, otherwise all of the growth is in the past and there is no reason to get in and hold.
predicted NO
@BTE I'm basing this on taking Elon at face value when he says the point of SpaceX is not to make money, but to go to Mars, and that going public will be a hindrance to that latter goal. As Bolton mentioned, this question resolves "NO" if Starlink is spun off and goes public on its own. I think there's a decent chance of that happening, probably better than 50/50. The chance of SpaceX *as a whole* going public while Elon is at the helm is about 5%.
predicted YES
@MattP I imagine thousands of SpaceX employees likely feel differently about the reason to go public considering they are getting paid in stock options they can't sell. Stock options expire after 10 years so if they don't go public, many of his employees wealth evaporates. Not gonna happen. Space X isn't the only game in town anymore, those valuable engineers will bail for a company that pays them right. I say there is 5 percent chance an IPO doesn't happen. This is basic corporate finance.
predicted NO
@BTE SpaceX has internal buybacks so employees do actually have (limited) liquidity.
predicted NO
@BTE I'm not sure you have done your homework on this. SpaceX employees aren't constantly having stock options expire - they get the option to exercise those options and to sell (limited amounts of) shares on a fairly regular basis. If that were to change, sure, there could be internal discontent - but for the time being, the company has provided decent liquidity options.
predicted NO
@BTE but hey! That's what prediction markets are for. If you feel that strongly about there being a 95% chance they go public I'll happily keep bidding the probability back down after you buy those shares. :)
predicted YES
@MattP https://www.gobankingrates.com/investing/stocks/elon-musk-spacex-starlink-ipo-wont-happen-until-2025-or-later/ Okay, I stand corrected. This seems to clearly confirm your position in a sense, basically ruling out a yes to this question. Always enjoy being proven wrong so I can change my mind!
How would you resolve if Starlink IPO’s but SpaceX does not?
@Honourary If Starlink IPOs but SpaceX does not, this resolves "NO". For Starlink, you can look at Jiaobei Mandos' markets e.g. https://manifold.markets/JiaobeiMandos/will-starlink-ipo-by-the-end-2023
@BoltonBailey Thanks for the clarification.

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