Will SpaceX IPO before 2024?
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Resolves "Yes" if SpaceX IPOs on or before December 31st 2023.
Jun 3, 8:54am: Note: If Starlink as a separate entity IPOs but SpaceX does not, this resolves "NO".
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@MattP I don't understand the connection to Mars colony. Why do you think Starship and Starlink are going to succeed without going public?!? That is nonsensical. You think private markets are the way to go during a recession?? Not when you have Elon's profile, then a recession is the perfect time. Liquidity events don't happen after the big event, they happen in the run up to the big event, otherwise all of the growth is in the past and there is no reason to get in and hold.
@BTE I'm basing this on taking Elon at face value when he says the point of SpaceX is not to make money, but to go to Mars, and that going public will be a hindrance to that latter goal.
As Bolton mentioned, this question resolves "NO" if Starlink is spun off and goes public on its own. I think there's a decent chance of that happening, probably better than 50/50. The chance of SpaceX *as a whole* going public while Elon is at the helm is about 5%.
@MattP I imagine thousands of SpaceX employees likely feel differently about the reason to go public considering they are getting paid in stock options they can't sell. Stock options expire after 10 years so if they don't go public, many of his employees wealth evaporates. Not gonna happen. Space X isn't the only game in town anymore, those valuable engineers will bail for a company that pays them right. I say there is 5 percent chance an IPO doesn't happen. This is basic corporate finance.
@BTE I'm not sure you have done your homework on this. SpaceX employees aren't constantly having stock options expire - they get the option to exercise those options and to sell (limited amounts of) shares on a fairly regular basis. If that were to change, sure, there could be internal discontent - but for the time being, the company has provided decent liquidity options.
@BTE but hey! That's what prediction markets are for. If you feel that strongly about there being a 95% chance they go public I'll happily keep bidding the probability back down after you buy those shares. :)
@MattP https://www.gobankingrates.com/investing/stocks/elon-musk-spacex-starlink-ipo-wont-happen-until-2025-or-later/ Okay, I stand corrected. This seems to clearly confirm your position in a sense, basically ruling out a yes to this question. Always enjoy being proven wrong so I can change my mind!
@Honourary If Starlink IPOs but SpaceX does not, this resolves "NO". For Starlink, you can look at Jiaobei Mandos' markets e.g. https://manifold.markets/JiaobeiMandos/will-starlink-ipo-by-the-end-2023
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