Will a supersonic plane fly commercial passengers by 2030?
29
1kṀ1833
2030
19%
chance

See for example this video from Boom, planning passengers by 2029.

Some clarifications of the criteria:

  1. There is no lower limit on how long the plane has to fly at the supersonic speed. The moment a plane carries commercial passengers at a speed which is supersonic at the altitude of flight, this qualifies for YES resolution.

  2. "Commercial Passenger" means someone who unexpectedly had to choose a different option than the supersonic flight would be more likely to re-book on a major airline like American or Delta than on a business jet. This will be somewhat subjective but important factors will include - Is the experience on the supersonic plane more similar to a regular airline than a business jet? To which is the ticket price more similar (log scale)? Do the passengers mostly fly business?

  3. At least two passengers are all that is required for this to resolve YES.

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