What will be the next country to join NATO?
Feb 24, 2032
M$3,361 bet
If no new country joins NATO before February 23, 2032, this market resolves to N/A. May 20, 9:19pm: Update: I posted a reply to the "Simultaneously" market expressing skepticism, but looking back, I don't think I was clear. To throw a bone to the (person) who bet it all on "Simultaneously" apparently without reading this comment, I will go 1/3-1/3-1/3 on Sweden, Finland, and "Simultaneously" if they do indeed join simultaneously. But I'm disqualifying any other answers that list more than one country, and if some set of countries other than {Sweden, Finland} join simultaneously, it will just be a choose multiple between those countries.
AlexMennen
Alex Mennen answered
Sweden and Finland simultaneously
39%
BoltonBailey
Bolton Bailey answered
Finland
33%
BoltonBailey
Bolton Bailey answered
Sweden
27%
Giovanni
Giovanni answered
Kosovo
0.2%
BoltonBailey
Bolton Bailey answered
Bosnia and Herzegovina
0.2%
TobiasPace
Tobias Pace answered
Mexico
0.1%
BoltonBailey
Bolton Bailey answered
Georgia
0.1%
DELETECLUB
DELETE CLUB answered
Catalonia
0.0%
DELETECLUB
DELETE CLUB answered
Scotland
0.0%
nmehndir
nmehndir answered
United States
0.0%
Giovanni
Giovanni answered
Ireland
0.0%
BoltonBailey
Bolton Bailey answered
Ukraine
0.0%
BoltonBailey
Bolton Bailey answered
Serbia
0.0%
Add your answer
AlexMennen
Sweden and Finland simultaneously
39%
AlexMennen

Alex Mennen bought M$12 months ago

Historically half of enlargements of NATO were multiple countries simultaneously, and I've heard claims that some in Sweden and Finland support coordinating whether or not they join.
BoltonBailey

Bolton Bailey bought M$12 months ago

I probably would just resolve this with "Choose multiple" if two countries joined simultaneously.
AlexMennen

Alex Mennen sold M$182 months ago

Oh I see. I hadn't realized there was a "choose multiple" option.
BoltonBailey
Finland
33%
BoltonBailey

Bolton Bailey bought M$13 months ago

According to Wikipedia, Finland has "open political debate on the topic of membership".
alwaysrinse

alwaysrinse 6 days ago

@BoltonBailey this should resolve as yes if it's F and S simultaneously
BoltonBailey
Sweden
27%
BoltonBailey

Bolton Bailey bought M$13 months ago

According to Wikipedia, Serbia has "open political debate on the topic of membership".
MattP

Matt P is betting Sweden 5 days ago

Whoops empty comment. Anyway, if they join simultaneously, those three options should be equal probability (or tbh the individual options should be higher), so I figure bumping this up is a good profit opportunity.
Giovanni
Kosovo
0.2%
BoltonBailey
Bosnia and Herzegovina
0.2%
BoltonBailey

Bolton Bailey bought M$103 months ago

According to Wikipedia, Bosnia and Herzegovina is currently the only country with a "Membership Action Plan".
TobiasPace
Mexico
0.1%
TobiasPace

Tobias Pace bought M$102 months ago

I doubt anyone is going to join as a response to the current crisis, and I can see Mexico getting more involved in global politics in the medium to long term.
BoltonBailey
Georgia
0.1%
BoltonBailey

Bolton Bailey bought M$53 months ago

According to Wikipedia, NATO currently recognizes Georgia as an "Aspiring Member"
DELETECLUB
Catalonia
0.0%
DELETECLUB
Scotland
0.0%
nmehndir
United States
0.0%
nmehndir

nmehndir bought M$1a month ago

The US could leave and rejoin. Does that count?
Giovanni
Ireland
0.0%
BoltonBailey
Ukraine
0.0%
BoltonBailey

Bolton Bailey bought M$33 months ago

According to Wikipedia, NATO currently recognizes Ukraine as an "Aspiring Member"
BoltonBailey
Serbia
0.0%
BoltonBailey

Bolton Bailey bought M$13 months ago

According to Wikipedia, Sweden has "open political debate on the topic of membership".
General Comments
BoltonBailey

Bolton Bailey a month ago

Sure, if a country leaves and rejoins NATO, I'll count that as a join.