What will be the next country to join NATO?
61
2.3kαΉ€38k
resolved Apr 4
100%99.1%
Finland
0.0%Other
0.0%
Bosnia and Herzegovina
0.0%
Georgia
0.0%
Ukraine
0.4%
Sweden
0.0%
Serbia
0.0%
Ireland
0.0%
Kosovo
0.0%
Cyprus
0.0%
Kaliningrad oblast
0.0%
Mexico
0.0%
Scotland
0.0%
Catalonia
0.4%
Sweden and Finland simultaneously
0.0%
United States
0.0%
Republic of China
0.0%
Moldova
If no new country joins NATO before February 23, 2032, this market resolves to N/A. May 20, 9:19pm: Update: I posted a reply to the "Simultaneously" market expressing skepticism, but looking back, I don't think I was clear. To throw a bone to the (person) who bet it all on "Simultaneously" apparently without reading this comment, I will go 1/3-1/3-1/3 on Sweden, Finland, and "Simultaneously" if they do indeed join simultaneously. But I'm disqualifying any other answers that list more than one country, and if some set of countries other than {Sweden, Finland} join simultaneously, it will just be a choose multiple between those countries.
World
Ukraine-Russia war
Get
αΉ€1,000
to start trading!

πŸ… Top traders

#NameTotal profit
1αΉ€2,628
2αΉ€2,398
3αΉ€1,034
4αΉ€370
5αΉ€310

People are also trading

Sort by:
Whoops empty comment. Anyway, if they join simultaneously, those three options should be equal probability (or tbh the individual options should be higher), so I figure bumping this up is a good profit opportunity.
@BoltonBailey
@BoltonBailey this should resolve as yes if it's F and S simultaneously
@alwaysrinse As I mentioned in my reply to Alex Mennen, there is a "Choose multiple" which I will use in the event Finland and Sweden join simultaneously. I am not inclined to resolve the "Simultaneously" market as Yes, since I think doing that would suffer the same kind of "option addition risk" that we saw in the "next leader to die" market, but I guess I'll ask on the discord.
Duplicate: https://manifold.markets/Nostradamnedus/what-will-be-the-next-nato-member-s
Sure, if a country leaves and rejoins NATO, I'll count that as a join.
The US could leave and rejoin. Does that count?
Oh I see. I hadn't realized there was a "choose multiple" option.
I probably would just resolve this with "Choose multiple" if two countries joined simultaneously.
Historically half of enlargements of NATO were multiple countries simultaneously, and I've heard claims that some in Sweden and Finland support coordinating whether or not they join.
I doubt anyone is going to join as a response to the current crisis, and I can see Mexico getting more involved in global politics in the medium to long term.
(after declaring independence from Russia)
According to Wikipedia, Sweden has "open political debate on the topic of membership".
According to Wikipedia, Finland has "open political debate on the topic of membership".
According to Wikipedia, Serbia has "open political debate on the topic of membership".
According to Wikipedia, NATO currently recognizes Ukraine as an "Aspiring Member"
According to Wikipedia, NATO currently recognizes Georgia as an "Aspiring Member"
According to Wikipedia, Bosnia and Herzegovina is currently the only country with a "Membership Action Plan".

People are also trading

Β© Manifold Markets, Inc.β€’Termsβ€’Privacy