What will be the next country to join NATO?

210

Ṁ38K

resolved Apr 4

ALL

0.0%

Bosnia and Herzegovina

0.0%

Georgia

0.0%

Ukraine

0.4%

Sweden

99.2%

Finland

0.0%

Serbia

0.0%

Ireland

0.0%

Kosovo

0.0%

Cyprus

0.0%

Kaliningrad oblast

0.0%

Mexico

0.0%

Scotland

0.0%

Catalonia

0.4%

Sweden and Finland simultaneously

0.0%

United States

0.0%

Republic of China

0.0%

Moldova

If no new country joins NATO before February 23, 2032, this market resolves to N/A. May 20, 9:19pm: Update: I posted a reply to the "Simultaneously" market expressing skepticism, but looking back, I don't think I was clear. To throw a bone to the (person) who bet it all on "Simultaneously" apparently without reading this comment, I will go 1/3-1/3-1/3 on Sweden, Finland, and "Simultaneously" if they do indeed join simultaneously. But I'm disqualifying any other answers that list more than one country, and if some set of countries other than {Sweden, Finland} join simultaneously, it will just be a choose multiple between those countries.

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18 Comments

224 Trades

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answered

Sweden

Whoops empty comment. Anyway, if they join simultaneously, those three options should be equal probability (or tbh the individual options should be higher), so I figure bumping this up is a good profit opportunity.

answered

Sweden

bought Ṁ50

@BoltonBailey

answered

Finland

@BoltonBailey this should resolve as yes if it's F and S simultaneously

@alwaysrinse As I mentioned in my reply to Alex Mennen, there is a "Choose multiple" which I will use in the event Finland and Sweden join simultaneously. I am not inclined to resolve the "Simultaneously" market as Yes, since I think doing that would suffer the same kind of "option addition risk" that we saw in the "next leader to die" market, but I guess I'll ask on the discord.

Duplicate: https://manifold.markets/Nostradamnedus/what-will-be-the-next-nato-member-s

Sure, if a country leaves and rejoins NATO, I'll count that as a join.

bought Ṁ1 of United States

The US could leave and rejoin. Does that count?

sold Ṁ18 of Sweden and Finland s...

Oh I see. I hadn't realized there was a "choose multiple" option.

bought Ṁ1 of Sweden and Finland s...

I probably would just resolve this with "Choose multiple" if two countries joined simultaneously.

bought Ṁ1 of Sweden and Finland s...

Historically half of enlargements of NATO were multiple countries simultaneously, and I've heard claims that some in Sweden and Finland support coordinating whether or not they join.

bought Ṁ10 of Mexico

I doubt anyone is going to join as a response to the current crisis, and I can see Mexico getting more involved in global politics in the medium to long term.