What will be the next country to join NATO?

Feb 24, 2032

M$3,361 bet

If no new country joins NATO before February 23, 2032, this market resolves to N/A. May 20, 9:19pm: Update: I posted a reply to the "Simultaneously" market expressing skepticism, but looking back, I don't think I was clear. To throw a bone to the (person) who bet it all on "Simultaneously" apparently without reading this comment, I will go 1/3-1/3-1/3 on Sweden, Finland, and "Simultaneously" if they do indeed join simultaneously. But I'm disqualifying any other answers that list more than one country, and if some set of countries other than {Sweden, Finland} join simultaneously, it will just be a choose multiple between those countries.

#World

Alex Mennen answered

Sweden and Finland simultaneously

39%

Bolton Bailey answered

Finland

33%

Bolton Bailey answered

Sweden

27%

Giovanni answered

Kosovo

0.2%

Bolton Bailey answered

Bosnia and Herzegovina

0.2%

Tobias Pace answered

Mexico

0.1%

Bolton Bailey answered

Georgia

0.1%

DELETE CLUB answered

Catalonia

0.0%

DELETE CLUB answered

Scotland

0.0%

nmehndir answered

United States

0.0%

Giovanni answered

Ireland

0.0%

Bolton Bailey answered

Ukraine

0.0%

Bolton Bailey answered

Serbia

0.0%

Add your answer

Alex Mennen answered2 months ago

Sweden and Finland simultaneously

39%

Alex Mennen bought M$12 months ago

Historically half of enlargements of NATO were multiple countries simultaneously, and I've heard claims that some in Sweden and Finland support coordinating whether or not they join.

Bolton Bailey bought M$12 months ago

I probably would just resolve this with "Choose multiple" if two countries joined simultaneously.

Alex Mennen sold M$182 months ago

Oh I see. I hadn't realized there was a "choose multiple" option.

Bolton Bailey answered3 months ago

Finland

33%

Bolton Bailey bought M$13 months ago

According to Wikipedia, Finland has "open political debate on the topic of membership".

alwaysrinse 6 days ago

@BoltonBailey this should resolve as yes if it's F and S simultaneously

Bolton Bailey answered3 months ago

Sweden

27%

Bolton Bailey bought M$13 months ago

According to Wikipedia, Serbia has "open political debate on the topic of membership".

Matt P bought M$505 days ago

@BoltonBailey

Matt P is betting Sweden 5 days ago

Whoops empty comment. Anyway, if they join simultaneously, those three options should be equal probability (or tbh the individual options should be higher), so I figure bumping this up is a good profit opportunity.

Giovanni answered3 months ago

Kosovo

0.2%

Bolton Bailey answered3 months ago

Bosnia and Herzegovina

0.2%

Bolton Bailey bought M$103 months ago

According to Wikipedia, Bosnia and Herzegovina is currently the only country with a "Membership Action Plan".

Tobias Pace answered2 months ago

Mexico

0.1%

Tobias Pace bought M$102 months ago

I doubt anyone is going to join as a response to the current crisis, and I can see Mexico getting more involved in global politics in the medium to long term.

Bolton Bailey answered3 months ago

Georgia

0.1%

Bolton Bailey bought M$53 months ago

According to Wikipedia, NATO currently recognizes Georgia as an "Aspiring Member"

DELETE CLUB answered2 months ago

Catalonia

0.0%

DELETE CLUB answered2 months ago

Scotland

0.0%

nmehndir answereda month ago