What tactic will prove the most mathlib lemmas at the end of 2026?
7
358
Ṁ703Ṁ310
2027
1D
1W
1M
ALL
2%
simp
38%
aesop
2%
rw_search
1.7%
sorry
4%
duper
52%
Sometime around the resolution date, I will write a script that samples random tactic-mode lemmas from mathlib, and replaces the proof of those lemmas with an invocation of a single tactic. This market resolves to whichever tactic of the ones provided as answers proves the biggest fraction of lemmas.
Get Ṁ600 play money
Related questions
Sort by:
By "prove", is it ok if there are warnings? Because I know of a tactic that has a 100% success rate 😉
@tfae Lol.
But no. Feel free to ask more questions about what counts as proof, but sorry does not count.
Related questions
Will AIs be widely recognized as having developed a new, innovative, foundational mathematical theory before 2030?
33% chance
Will any language model trained without large number arithmetic be able to generalize to large number arithmetic by 2026?
69% chance
Will we have a formalized proof of Fermat's last theorem by 2029-05-01?
59% chance
Will reinforcement learning overtake LMs on math before 2028?
43% chance
Will the best public LLM at the end of 2025 solve more than 5 of the first 10 Project Euler problems published in 2026?
65% chance
Will aesop be able to replace >50% of mathlib proofs by 2025-11-26?
42% chance
Will the majority of mathematicians rely on formal computer proof assistants before the end of 2040?
65% chance
Will AIs be widely recognized as having developed a new, innovative, foundational mathematical theory before 2035?
50% chance
Which of these research ideas will I publish or preprint by end of 2026?
Will we have a proof of the Riemann Hypothesis by 2060?
46% chance