Will aesop be able to replace >50% of mathlib proofs by 2025-11-26?
18
1kṀ498Nov 26
41%
chance
1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Sometime around the resolution date, I will write a script that samples random tactic-mode lemmas from mathlib, and replaces the proof of those lemmas with an invocation of aesop.
Resolves YES if aesop successfully proves >50% of the lemmas.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get 
1,000 to start trading!
1,000People are also trading
Related questions
Will rw_search be able to replace >50% of mathlib proofs by 2025-11-26?
19% chance
What tactic will prove the most mathlib lemmas at the end of 2026?
Will Alphaproof achieve >30% performance on the FrontierMath benchmark before 2026?
16% chance
Will the majority of mathematicians rely on formal computer proof assistants before the end of 2040?
60% chance
Will an AI get silver on any International Math Olympiad by 2025?
90% chance
Will an AI model write the proof to the Riemann Hypothesis by the end of 2025?
2% chance
Will an AI get bronze on any International Math Olympiad by 2025?
91% chance
Will AIs be widely recognized as having developed a new, innovative, foundational mathematical theory before 2035?
50% chance
Will any AI model achieve > 40% on Frontier Math before 2026?
75% chance
Will the best public LLM at the end of 2025 solve more than 5 of the first 10 Project Euler problems published in 2026?
75% chance