Will aesop be able to replace >50% of mathlib proofs by 2025-11-26?
18
1kṀ498Nov 26
41%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Sometime around the resolution date, I will write a script that samples random tactic-mode lemmas from mathlib, and replaces the proof of those lemmas with an invocation of aesop.
Resolves YES if aesop successfully proves >50% of the lemmas.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000 to start trading!
1,000Sort by:
You will use aesop without any arguments or additional configuration (besides what is given in mathlib)?
Related questions
Related questions
Will an AI achieve >85% performance on the FrontierMath benchmark before 2028?
72% chance
Will AI solve any of Hilbert's unsolved problems before April of 2025?
1% chance
By 2030, AI can autonomously prove mathematical theorems that are publishable in mathematics journals today?
70% chance
Will rw_search be able to replace >50% of mathlib proofs by 2025-11-26?
19% chance
What tactic will prove the most mathlib lemmas at the end of 2026?
Will an AI get silver on any International Math Olympiad by 2025?
86% chance
Will Alphaproof achieve >30% performance on the FrontierMath benchmark before 2026?
18% chance
Will any AI be able to explain formal language proofs to >=50% of IMO problems by the start of 2025?
19% chance
Will the majority of mathematicians rely on formal computer proof assistants before the end of 2040?
60% chance
Will an AI model write the proof to the Riemann Hypothesis by the end of 2025?
4% chance