Will rw_search be able to replace >50% of mathlib proofs by 2025-11-26?
9
190Ṁ280resolved Nov 27
Resolved
NO1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Sometime around the resolution date, I will write a script that samples random tactic-mode lemmas from mathlib, and replaces the proof of those lemmas with an invocation of rw_search.
Resolves YES if rw_search successfully proves >50% of the lemmas.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Market context
Get
1,000 to start trading!
🏅 Top traders
| # | Name | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ17 | |
| 2 | Ṁ15 | |
| 3 | Ṁ13 | |
| 4 | Ṁ12 | |
| 5 | Ṁ10 |
People are also trading
Related questions
Will the best public LLM at the end of 2025 solve more than 5 of the first 10 Project Euler problems published in 2026?
64% chance
In 2029, will any AI be able to take an arbitrary proof in the mathematical literature and translate it into a form suitable for symbolic verification? (Gary Marcus benchmark #5)
76% chance
What tactic will prove the most mathlib lemmas at the end of 2026?
Will Lean mathlib contain more than 10 million lines of code by 2030?
67% chance
Will the majority of mathematicians rely on formal computer proof assistants before the end of 2040?
60% chance
Will an AI achieve >85% performance on the FrontierMath benchmark before 2027?
37% chance
Will ZFC no longer be the standard foundation for mathematics by 2050?
33% chance
Will reinforcement learning overtake LMs on math before 2028?
61% chance
Will we have a formalized proof of Fermat's last theorem by 2029-05-01?
69% chance
Which MATH-AI 23 works will have >50 Google Scholar citations by end of 2026?