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MANIFOLD
By when will a competition platform like Codeforces but for mathematics (theorem proving) appear?
20
Ṁ585Ṁ1.2k
2030
62%
2027
55%
2026
35%
2030
33%
2029
31%
2028
1.9%
2025

Reasoning

Competitive programming platforms exist because it's comfortable to write computations and the validity and speed of a computation can easily with high confidence be verified with another computation, that iterates over most relevant inputs and checks the corresponding output.

This mostly didn't apply for the verification of mathematical proofs. Until recently, with the creation of Lean the mentioned difference is becoming smaller. If Lean improves and becomes more widespread, a platform hosting theorem proving competitions could be created.

Resolution criteria

The platform must be used and follow a similar format of 'Codeforces' in particular:

  • Contests of length between 30 minutes to 1 day can be organized

  • Each contest can consist of multiple problems, and solving earlier and more rewards the participant

  • Participants submit a .lean file or some other format which contains the fully written proof, which can be verified by the host automatically using other computation

  • There have been at least 10 public contests

  • On average, in each contest there were more than 50 participants

  • Update 2026-10-08 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - Verification method: Natural-language proofs verified automatically by LLMs (or other computation) are eligible.

    • Resolution timing: The market will resolve to the year in which the platform fully qualifies (e.g., if the 10th contest is held in 2027, the market resolves to 2027).

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This will most likely resolve by EOY 2026, as Repovive has already held its first math contest, with proofs written in natural language.

@patrik If Repovive doesn't manage to hold 10 contests by the end of 2026 (for example, assuming they organize one math contest per month from now on), will you resolve this as 2026 or 2027? Also, do natural-language proofs count, or do they have to be written strictly in Lean or another proof assistant?

@LukaChrelashvili As long as it's checked by some computation (including LLMs), the moment the platform qualifies, so 2027

fwiw mathdash is a replica of code forces. does not have automatic proof verification

bought Ṁ10 NO

Can I managram you mana to add more answers? I would like to see every year between now and 2030.

Done.

@patrik Sweet, thanks (payment sent)!