Resolves to YES if, at any time before the end of 2024, any Manifold user's "portfolio" or "profit" publicly shows at least 1 billion units of Manifold currency.
Instead of "portfolio" or "profit", any publicly-visible measure of anything analogous to "net worth" or "account balance" is also OK.
Negative numbers do not count: negative two billion is not "at least one billion".
1,000
3.00N/A'ing this market in line with this one: https://manifold.markets/AmmonLam/will-someone-surpass-the-portfolio#iYQVIWbZfx9yMnRIJkQx
Sorry, bit unfortunate. I'd suggest creating another market. Going forward bugs simply won't count towards resolution. But this time around people didn't know that so would be unfair to bettors to leave it open.
@RobertCousineau why? Doesn't look like bug exploit was going to be a deciding factor. Just makes yes less likely
@Dave_9000ish the bug exploit was certainly a deciding factor here. As written, this question should resolve yes. Manifold is saying they do not want questions written like this though.
@RobertCousineau Wasn't the other N/A'ing because the creator of the other market explicitly asked for Manifold staff to resolve it? It seems like unless Boklam requests help or resolves clearly incorrectly, they shouldn't interfere?
@RobertCousineau I don't think that's an issue with how the question is written, but how bugs are handled by the community and occasionally the staff
@tailcalled The creator was leaning toward resolving yes and it was resolved N/A. Kinda feeling bad as I bought on this one after seeing the billionaire before knowing the Manifold rule
https://manifold.markets/Boklam/will-i-resolve-a-market-controversi?r=U2ViYXN0aWFuV29ybXM
Well this one should go up now that we risk a controversy on this market
@Timothy Resolving YES in the case of bugs sets bad incentives if the goal is to get prediction for non-bug billionaires. Because then the probabilities would be biased upwards due to people also including the probability of bugs.
@tailcalled Even having this discussion makes using Manifold 10 times worse because we are now betting on how the creator will interpret the resolution criteria. The obvious thing is to follow the description word for word. The creator could have thought of bugs and now they can just create a new market. After resolving this either N/A or YES.
But this is of course a tiny market. It only really matters once thousands have been bet.
@Timothy As a creator, I would recommend that if you are betting on the basis of an edge-case, you should try to contact the creator about how they interpret it. This is better than leaving it unknown.
I try to think of criteria, and make it clear when I'd be literalist vs not, but sometimes I don't think of everything.
@tailcalled "This is better than leaving it unknown." Wtf what kind of half-assed argument did I make there?!
This is better than leaving it unknown because it can often become known if asked and as a creator I often create markets specifically because I want to predict stuff and that works better if the resolution is better known.
@ScottLawrence It needs to be 1 billion units of Manifold currency -- whatever unit of currency Manifold is using at the time the person has 1 billion units of it.