Manifold seems to be in some sort of trouble with its payment processor, Stripe, because Stripe is afraid Manifold might be some sort of illegal gambling site.

https://manifold.markets/Austin/will-manifold-still-be-accepting-pa

Manifold uses Mana ( Ṁ ) instead of real money to avoid being subject to legal restrictions on gambling.

Users can convert real money to Mana (i.e. buy Mana), but there is no way to convert Mana back to money, with a narrow exception: Manifold for Charity allows you to convert Mana into money, which Manifold will send to a charity of your choice.

Stripe seems to feel (see Austin's latest comment on the linked market) that this narrow exception makes Manifold into a gambling site (and hence they do not want to do business with Manifold).

Stripe suggested that Manifold could get out of this trouble by turning off the Manifold for Charity feature (as well as options to buy Manifold swag with Mana). Will Manifold do so?

To be clear: resolution of this market depends only on the headline question. If, on Apr. 15, it's possible to convert Mana into a charitable donation, I resolve YES. Otherwise, NO.