If Trump wins the 2024 US presidential election, will cannabis be decriminalized or legalized by the midterms?

Question

Resolves YES if Donald Trump is elected president in the 2024 presidential elections AND a federal law is enacted that legalizes cannabis or removes criminal penalties for the possession of cannabis for personal use by Tuesday, November 3rd, 2026.

Resolves NO if Donald Trump is elected president in the 2024 presidential election AND no federal laws are enacted that legalize cannabis or remove criminal penalties for the possession of cannabis for personal use by November 3rd, 2026.

Resolves N/A if Donald Trump is not elected president in 2024 or if a federal law is enacted that legalizes cannabis or removes criminal penalties for the possession of cannabis for personal use prior to the election on November 5th, 2024.

Sister market:

(https://manifold.markets/embed/Athena/if-biden-wins-the-2024-us-president)Update 2025-09-03 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - For this market, "federal law enacted" is interpreted broadly: any nationwide decision that legalizes cannabis or removes criminal penalties for personal possession will resolve YES.

Examples that qualify (must apply nationwide):

Supreme Court ruling

Executive Order

Bill passed by Congress

DEA/FDA decision

Manifold Markets · Answer

Unlikely — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 18% chance (33 traders, as of Apr 22, 2026).