[ 💣 short fuse] When will Kamala Harris announce her VP pick?
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Plus
324
Ṁ120k
resolved Aug 6
100%99.2%
Aug 6
0.0%
July 28
0.0%
July 29
0.0%
July 30
0.0%
July 31
0.0%
Aug 1
0.0%
Aug 2
0.0%
Aug 3
0.0%
Aug 4
0.0%
Aug 5
0.2%
Aug 7
0.1%
Aug 8
0.1%
[invalid answer]
0.2%Other

For each day that passes, I will add a day at the end of the range in this market until Kamala Harris picks her VP.

Resolves NA if:

  • Kamala Harris drops out before announcing a VP

  • Kamala Harris announces her VP today, July 27

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Ṁ1,000
and
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As far as I can tell, this hasn't happened yet? The media is reporting what they expect to happen, but the announcement hasn't been made yet.

I will reresolve if it doesn’t happen today “officially”. It is true that she hasn’t announced this publicly yet, so the criticism is fair.

@BlueDragon It happened. Aug 6 resolves YES.

sold Ṁ0 Aug 5 YES

https://www.reuters.com/world/us/harris-unveil-vice-presidential-pick-race-against-trump-2024-08-06/

WASHINGTON, Aug 6 (Reuters) - Kamala Harris will unveil her vice presidential running mate on Tuesday, her first major decision as the Democratic Party's presidential candidate and another step in her quest to win the White House in November.

bought Ṁ50 Aug 5 YES

This is in EST, right?

bought Ṁ100 Aug 6 NO

The dust is still settling for battleground polling averages. PA has an early lead as the most decisive state in most models, pointing to Shapiro as VP pick.

However that could still change. IMO Harris had best wait until the turning point state ranking stabilizes if she wishes to make the most strategic VP choice.

I’m going to hold off on adding more days until Wednesday. If the market isn’t resolved by then, I’ll add Aug 9, etc until the VP is announced.

[invalid answer]

@mods can I get an NA?

No we unfortunately can’t N/A an individual option in a linked multiple choice market

I can rename it so people dont mistakenly bet on it

Aug 8 twice?

Ah crud. Thanks.

Hi @traders unfortunately due to a bug I can’t add Aug 7 this morning. Reported in Discord and hopefully resolved quickly.

Why would you add Aug 7?? Seems obvious most "other" bets were placed on the ground that it wasn't included ...

@CateHall That's fine, the Other option is split into Other and the new option when a new option is added, so payouts remain the same as if it wasn't added for Other holders

Specifically, If you hold n YES on other, post split you get n YES other and n YES on the new option, and if you have n NO on other you get n YES shares of all options but other and the new option

Yep also please see Description. I’ve added a new day each day since I created this market.

But then I also think not adding Aug 7 yet isn’t the end of the world.

Aug 7 added

bought Ṁ50 Aug 5 YES

Yes. Tuesday Aug 6.

Can days that have passed resolve NO? I think it depends on how market was set up but would appreciate if @BlueDragon checked.

They can’t. I checked.

Dang it I forgot to make the options independent :(. Sorry that would be even more fun.

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