This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 100 for any date after market creation up until January 1st 2029.

Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.

This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level.

The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at chokepoint6 , both in the chart and through downloadable files.

IMF Portwatch: chokepoint6

This question is made with respect to this question on Polymarket which is a bit misleading.

Polymarket:

https://polymarket.com/event/strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-end-of-june

chokepoint6

Note to users: Due to the ongoing conflict in the region, there are reports of GPS jamming, AIS spoofing, and vessels going dark. Please use the data with care and refer to our FAQ page for limitations of AIS data.