The current president of the Brazilian Supreme Court, Min. Rosa Weber, is rapporteur of the claim of non-compliance with a fundamental precept n. 442 (ADPF 442), which argues for the de-criminalization of the voluntary termination of pregnancy during the first twelve weeks of gestation.
As she will leave the court on October 2023 due to compulsory retirement, some sources predicted she might submit the case to the plenary by then.
This market resolves YES if a majority of the active ministers of the Brazilian Supreme Court vote for considering the criminalization of abortion unconsitutional in most cases*. It resolves as NO if no vote is held at all, if a majority is formed against the main claim in ADPF 442 (or a similar case that is brought to the plenary), of if no clear majority is formed before Min. Rosa Weber leaves the office.
*If one or more ministers ask for more time for analyzing the case and the vote is not finished before the given deadline, the already existing majority - if there is such - will be considered to resolve the market.
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Manifold in the wild: A Tweet by Franklin Baldo
🟥🟥🟥🟥🟥🟥🟥:🟩🟩🟩 I'm betting NO at M$1 to M$2 on 'Will a majority of the Brazilian Supreme Court vote for expanding abortion rights until the end of Min. Rosa Weber's chairmanship?' https://manifold.markets/BernardoChrispimBaron/will-a-majority-of-the-brazilian-su