This market forecasts the status of the ongoing controversy between X (formerly Twitter) and the Brazil Supreme Court in April 2025. Participants will predict the long-term outcomes of this conflict, which revolves around issues of free speech, content moderation, and the balance between corporate autonomy and government regulation.
Elon Musk has decided that X (formerly Twitter) will not comply with a court order from Brazil's Supreme Court, which he views as an aggressive act of censorship, particularly concerning the "Twitter Files Brazil." Musk emphasizes that principles, specifically defending free speech, are more important than profit, even if it means facing financial and operational consequences in Brazil (The Epoch Times).
Predictions might include whether the legal dispute has been resolved, the impact on X's operations in Brazil, any lasting changes to Brazilian law or digital policy, and the broader implications for global internet governance and free speech online.
1,000
3.00@FranklinBaldo You’re not being consistent with your rules. Further below you said that you would resolve it in April.
@FabioTran Can you change the question to say “until April” rather than “by April”?
@FranklinBaldo https://www.cnnbrasil.com.br/blogs/caio-junqueira/politica/x-decide-cumprir-decisoes-de-moraes-para-voltar-a-atuar-no-brasil-dizem-advogados/
Cnn is reporting X will comply with STF decisions...
18,3 mi BRL was transfered to Brazilian government account. Resolving this as yes
@FranklinBaldo Resolves YES.
E.g. "When the Guardian tried to access the network on its computer and mobile phone, it received a message reading: “Seems like you lost connectivity. We’ll keep retrying. [...] Brazilian users could no longer read his words [on Twitter] without using a virtual private network (VPN)."
Market about how many people will be fined for using X via VPN: https://manifold.markets/coproduct/how-many-people-will-be-fined-for-u?r=Y29wcm9kdWN0
@FranklinBaldo Does it resolve if it is free in April or if users used it for free at any moment until April?
@FranklinBaldo today Brazilian are saying goodbye to Twitter and sharing their other social media accounts
https://manifold.markets/LeonardoKr/will-alexandre-de-moraes-be-ministe?r=TGVvbmFyZG9Lcg
For a shorter time horizon and regarding one specific question
@andyou depends on how the answer is formulated. i would argue that "X closed their office in Brazil" can be resolved as soon as it happens but "Brazilians need VPN to access X" we need to wait until April 2025
@FranklinBaldo Thanks! I think there is a chance X is blocked in the coming weeks, but this shouldn’t last until April
@FranklinBaldo Thanks! I think there is a chance X is blocked in the coming weeks, but this shouldn’t last until April
@FranklinBaldo Just confirming you will only resolve this answer in April, not at the moment x is blocked.