On December 19th, 2022, the Brazilian Supreme Court changed its internal regulation, which previously allowed any minister to indefinitely stay a case, effectively blocking it from being examined by the plenary.

The new rules imposed a 90-day limit on the interval for which a case could be stayed upon a minister's request to access the case dockets. This change was seen as significant at the time because it could prevent individual ministers from blocking the examination of relevant cases by the plenum.

This market will resolve as YES if, by the 2nd anniversary of the new rules, it is generally considered successful in achieving its goal. The evaluation will be based on articles from specialists in Brazilian constitutional law and the Supreme Court, published in both niche press (Migalhas, Jota, Conjur) and major press outlets (Folha, Estadão, O Globo), that assess the retrospective impact of the change by the closing date.

If journalists and specialists are able to identify at least two cases of significant social, political, or fiscal impact that were stayed for more than 90 days despite the new regulation*, the market will resolve as NO. The definition of "significant social, political, or fiscal impact" includes cases that received notable attention in the general press**.

Traders are encouraged to share articles and cases relevant to the resolution criteria. If I cannot find articles discussing the effectiveness of the regulatory changes by the closing date, it will likely be considered as evidence that the changes were effective. However, I may also take into account cases mentioned in the comments.

*Cases that were stayed before the new regulation was passed will not be counted.

**Given the still somewhat subjective nature of this criteria, I do not intend to trade in this market.