This market resolves YES if, before June 1, 2026, armed forces of the United States or Israel establish physical military control on Larak Island (Iran) for at least 24 hours.

Resolution criteria

This market resolves YES if, before June 1, 2026, armed forces of the United States, Israel, or a non-Iranian Gulf state establish physical military control on Larak Island for at least 24 hours. Control must involve ground forces occupying part of the island, such as through an amphibious landing or airborne assault. Airstrikes, drone attacks, naval blockades, or cyberattacks without ground occupation do not qualify. Control does not need to be recognized internationally or permanent. Resolution will rely on reporting from major news organizations (Reuters, AP, BBC, etc.).

Examples that qualify:

• Deployment of ground forces controlling part of the island

• Amphibious landing or airborne assault that results in temporary control

Examples that do NOT qualify:

• Airstrikes, missile strikes, or drone attacks without ground control

• Naval blockade without landing forces

• Cyberattacks or sabotage without overt military occupation
  

Control may be temporary and does not need to be recognized internationally.

Resolution will rely on reporting from major news organizations (Reuters, AP, BBC, etc.).

Background

Larak Island is an Iranian island located off the coast of Iran, which has been one of Iran's major oil export points since 1987. The narrowest part of the Strait of Hormuz at a distance of 24 miles (39 km) lies between this Iranian island and Oman's Great Quoin Island. The island contains an Iranian military base which maintains several Chinese-made Silkworm HY-2 surface-to-surface missiles placed there in 1987. Larak is the island to watch if the priority is who can actually regulate, disrupt, or restore movement through Hormuz itself, sitting at the intersection of geography, shipping control, and the selective transit regime Tehran now appears to be building inside Hormuz.

Considerations

On 28 February 2026, Israel and the United States began a series of strikes against Iran, aiming to induce regime change in Iran and target its nuclear and ballistic missile programme. By March 2, US Central Command announced local air superiority over western Iran and Tehran, achieved without the confirmed loss of a single American or Israeli combat aircraft. The conflict remains active as of late March 2026, with ongoing negotiations and military operations. Any occupation of Larak Island would represent a significant escalation involving direct ground control of Iranian territory.