This is the capital-D market; see https://manifold.markets/BenjaminCosman/in-be-swallowed-up-by-the-sun-will for lowercase-d.

This resolves YES if the number of True Deaths primarily attributable to the crashing plane in https://glowfic.com/posts/6340 is >= 1.

Fine print:

• The Deaths still count even if the people are subsequently resurrected (e.g. by Golarion magic).

• People who Die within an in-world month (e.g. in a hospital after medevac, though that really shouldn't be possible) still count as long as it seems like it's of crash-related injuries.

• If the story is abandoned or ends before the plane crashes or before it seems sufficiently clear how many currently-dead people will get cryo, this resolves N/A.

• If the story is abandoned or ends after that point, any people who are not dead count as not Dead even if they are in critical condition.

• The market close date is an estimate and will be pushed back as necessary if I think the outcome is still in doubt.

• If the story provides a reasonably explicit accounting of Deaths (e.g. "we froze 10 of them but there's only a half chance they were still viable, so call it 5 Deaths"), I'll use that. Otherwise, I'll count cryopreservations under reasonably good field conditions as zero Deaths, and if the number of Deaths is still not sufficiently clear, I will ask for a Word-of-God from the authors.

• Since this may end up a subjective call in spite of these clarifications, I will not bet in this market.